Picking & Grinning: Strikeforce Heavyweight GP
Antonio Silva is the favorite Saturday, but is he at serious
risk of being upset? | Photo: Sherdog.com
Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for Strikeforce “Barnett vs. Kharitonov,” which airs live on Showtime at 10 p.m. ET/PT on Saturday from the U.S. Bank Arena in Cincinnati. HDNet will air the prelims at 8 p.m. ET/5 p.m. PT.
Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Semifinals
Josh Barnett vs. Sergei Kharitonov
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Jordan Breen: Kharitonov is one of the most enjoyable heavyweights to watch in MMA, because the rock-handed Russian, even if not the most fleet-of-fist, can throw brutal boxing combinations with four-ounce gloves on. However, Kharitonov has historically showed submission defense from his back that could best be described as porous. Barnett could have tough sledding early with Kharitonov’s hands, but, following a takedown, the self-proclaimed “Warmaster” should be able to coax a tap from the Russian.
Brian Knapp: Kharitonov lands in bunches and has proven
himself one of the heavyweight division’s bigger hitters.
Certainly, no one would bat an eye if the Russian were to flatten
Barnett with one of his sledgehammers, but the former UFC champion
is superior to him in virtually every other area. I suspect Barnett
will cross the threshold under heavy fire, secure the necessary
takedown and post the submission.
Strikeforce Heavyweight Grand Prix Semifinals
Daniel Cormier vs. Antonio Silva
Tristen Critchfield: Cormier’s wrestling ability has gotten him this far, but a matchup against the monstrous Silva will make it difficult for him to put those talents on display. Silva’s superior size will aid him in stuffing Cormier’s takedowns, and if “Bigfoot” can get top position, he will be able to overwhelm the American Kickboxing Academy product with ground-and-pound. Cormier’s standup has improved while training at the elite gym, but it’s unlikely that it can win the bout for him against the Brazilian, who has shown a durable chin in the past. Silva wears down Cormier and eventually wins with strikes from the top against a fatigued foe.
Guilherme Pinheiro: Cormier has the wrestling pedigree and trains with one of the best MMA teams in the world, so one cannot simply disregard his chances against Silva. However, I don’t think he is good enough on his feet to overcome the huge size difference and hit “Bigfoot” square on the chin, which I think is the best strategy against the gigantic Brazilian. In the end, Silva has way too much for Cormier at this point in time. Give me the Brazilian by unanimous decision.
Todd Martin: I don’t think Cormier got the credit he deserved for his win over Jeff Monson. Cormier’s wrestling was never in question, but, in that fight, he demonstrated excellent progress in his standup game. Cormier is coming along quickly as a mixed martial artist, and, with his training partners and striking development, he’s going to be a beast very soon. The question is if Silva is coming along a little too early for Cormier. Silva’s size and well-developed overall game make him dangerous wherever the fight goes, but I’m betting Cormier is ready already. He’ll be able to dictate where the fight takes place and keep Silva off balance with striking and wrestling. Cormier scores the upset.
Lutfi Sariahmed: Silva brings back to the forefront this discussion of what would happen between a big guy and a small guy in a cage. More often than not, the battle went the way of the smaller man because he was more skilled. The big guy was also a Fat Guy and had the agility of a moose. Silva, though, is the exception to that idea. Long ago projected to be a potential threat to Fedor Emelianenko’s throne, “Bigfoot” is finally putting everything together. Is he flawless? Absolutely not, but he’s also not Emmanuel Yarborough. As a result, he’ll give even the most capable of heavyweights some problems because of his size. Look at Cormier. His game is wrestling, but what happens if he botches just one takedown attempt? It could mean he loses the round. Cormier’s walking far too thin of a tightrope for me to pick him, even with his credentials. Give me Silva to advance.
Strikeforce Middleweight Championship
Luke Rockhold vs. Ronaldo Souza
Freddie DeFreitas: I know I’m going to take a lot of flak for this statement, but I stand firm in my belief that Rockhold is a poor man’s Jacare. While the American is an uber-talented grappler in his own right, Souza, I’ve always felt, is on a level all his own. Even in his most recent defeat, way back in 2008, Souza was in complete control before getting clipped by a Gegard Mousasi upkick. With Souza’s striking seemingly improving with every outing, I can’t see where Rockhold can possibly win this fight; Jacare by decision.
Rob King: I think this fight is a case of trying to do too much too soon. Rockhold is a good prospect who has shown submissions, but his submissions are not going to get him much success against Souza, one of the best at 185 pounds in terms of grappling. To win this fight, Rockhold will have to keep it on the feet -- an area where he is OK but not yet something special. Souza has shown he is not afraid to stand and has shown some power in the standup department. I don’t see a way Rockhold wins this fight. Give me Souza via submission in the middle rounds.
Tony Loiseleur: Rockhold is very good middleweight who tends to get overlooked despite being exceptional in all departments; he’s good on the feet and great on the canvas. Be that as it may, he’s going up against someone who is nigh untouchable in the grappling department in Jacare. It should also be noted that Souza has surprised onlookers with how quickly he has developed a competent striking game under Josuel Distak, so I wouldn’t be surprised if Jacare is able to match Rockhold on the feet. However, that’s the only place I can see the American winning this fight, either by outpointing his opponent or testing his shaky chin. Given that the story of Rockhold’s career is one in which he’s been constantly and unjustly overlooked, I wouldn’t be surprised if he came out on top. Nonetheless, my vote is with Jacare by decision.
Light Heavyweights
Muhammed Lawal vs. Roger Gracie
Sariahmed: Considering where King Mo is in his career, it seems very bizarre for me to say he’s going to be the toughest bout of someone’s career. However, that’s the case here. What has Gracie done in MMA? You can rattle off his credentials, but King Mo isn’t going to fall to his back and just give Gracie a submission. He was outstruck on the feet, and that led to the Rafael “Feijao” Cavalcante loss. Gracie’s not going to do that. A ground battle here doesn’t overwhelmingly favor Gracie, and, if the bout stays standing, I’m taking King Mo every time. I’ll take Lawal by decision.
Breen: Gracie might be the most brilliant, technical jiu-jitsu player ever. However, his MMA diet thus far has largely been handpicked opponents who were hardly in a position to excel. In Lawal, he gets the most well-rounded opponent of his career, with respect to skills and physical ability. Lawal has even had a full training camp. Two wild cards exist here: one, Gracie’s ability to get a dominant position and end the fight instantaneously and, two, Lawal’s layoff due to injury. However, Lawal is a vastly superior striker and has the wrestling to thwart Gracie, who, while being able to finish takedowns, doesn’t have the explosive first step or technical wrestling ability to close the distance. If Gracie can’t get his moment of magic, look for Lawal on points in an unsatisfying boxing match.
Marciniak: While King Mo proclaimed himself as “Blackuraba” a few days ago, pursuing a ground strategy worthy of the namesake would be foolish against Gracie. Mo should look to close the distance with the lanky Gracie and dirty box him against the cage. Gracie is an absolute paragon on the floor, but he usually has to literally drag his opponents down there; a wrestler of Lawal’s class should shrug off the Brazilian. I like Lawal to pick up a decision.
Lightweights
Pat Healy vs. Maximo Blanco
Brian Knapp: A potent offensive fighter, Blanco brings with him outstanding credentials. Those will serve him well in his Strikeforce debut against Healy, a wrestling-based journeyman who often wills and hustles himself to victory. The Team Quest veteran will have to rely on his experience and savvy, as he is clearly outgunned here. Blanco’s star is on the rise and I cannot see him faltering, as the former lightweight King of Pancrase stops Healy inside the first or second round and announces his arrival stateside.
Critchfield: Healy has been around for a while, and his experience will be his greatest asset against Blanco. If the Team Quest product can control the wrestling aspect of the fight, he might take the decision. It won’t be easy, because Blanco has solid credentials in that area, as well. With knockouts or technical knockouts in five of his last six bouts, Blanco should have the advantage on the feet. Unless Healy can drag out the fight, Blanco finishes this one in the second or third round.
Pinheiro: Although I was really psyched to watch Blanco test the waters in North American territory against Josh Thomson, I believe Strikeforce did a decent job in finding a replacement for the American Kickboxing Academy product. Unfortunately for Healy, Blanco is one of the best lightweight prospects in MMA today, and he will show why in this fight. Healy can certainly give Blanco some problems, but eventually, the Venezuelan will explode in Healy’s face and win by knockout.
Sariahmed: Blanco has all the talent in the world. He’s exciting in the cage and never leaves you wanting. The problem here comes with his experience. He’s let his youth get the best of him on occasion, and Healy has the ability to make him pay. I understand Healy’s 28 while Blanco is 27, but we’re talking about a 30-fight difference between the two. Healy’s wrestling is more than capable of stifling Blanco’s offense. I don’t think Blanco is going to react well to that over the course of three rounds. Healy wins a decision.
Light Heavyweights
Yoel Romero Palacio vs. Rafael Cavalcante
Martin: Palacio has a lot of hype, and this is a big challenge early in his career. Feijao has good defensive wrestling and jiu-jitsu to go with his excellent striking game, so we’re going to find out a lot about Palacio’s boxing and ability to get takedowns in the context of MMA competition. Ultimately, I think Palacio’s wrestling pedigree and natural power will be the difference. He’ll get Feijao down consistently and either finish him with strikes on the ground or grind out a decision.
DeFreitas: A 2000 Olympic silver medalist, Palacio makes his anticipated Strikeforce debut and draws no easy task for his first foray fighting in the United States, as he meets the promotion’s former titleholder, Feijao. Since following in his brother’s footsteps, defecting from his native Cuba to Germany, Romero has compiled an impressive professional record in short order against a mixed bag of competition, but Feijao is a proven commodity in the division and has a legitimate skill set that could prove troublesome for the Cuban wrestler. Give me Feijao by technical knockout past the midpoint in the fight.
King: I am really excited for this fight, as this will be my first chance to see Palacio, a man I have heard nothing but good things about. With his pedigree, it’s easy to say that Palacio could win a decision based on his wrestling and ability to gain and maintain position. Cavalcante can benefit from the fact that he has faced a number of high-level wrestlers recently and showed against Lawal that he can stuff the takedowns. Cavalcante has a huge edge in experience, but I’m going to go with the prospect here. I like Palacio to grind out a decision based off of his superior wrestling ability.
2011 Picking & Grinning Standings:
Jordan Breen: 129-53
Brian Knapp: 127-55
Tristen Critchfield: 126-56
Tomasz Marciniak: 123-59
Todd Martin: 122-60
Guilherme Pinheiro: 120-62
Freddie DeFreitas: 119-63
Rob King: 119-63
Lutfi Sariahmed: 117-65
Tony Loiseleur: 115-67
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