Red Ink: Ortiz/Griffin

There is likely to be a moment during the Tito Ortiz/Forrest Griffin bout on Saturday when both men struggle for position: Griffin pressed against the cage, resisting Ortiz’s chances on the ground, Ortiz testing his new back against someone paid to hurt him. There are consequences to how this plays out, but they amount to more than the superficial damage: in jockeying for control, both are really fighting to remain relevant.

Ortiz has not competed in over a year, maintained a nearly-annual fight schedule prior to that, and may find that fans have pledged allegiances to more active fighters. In the span Ortiz took time off, fought Lyoto Machida and convalesced, Griffin has fought four top-ten ranked opponents. (And beat two of them.) Ortiz has not had a hand raised in a meaningful fight since he defeated Griffin in 2006.

If Ortiz cannot beat Griffin, there will be doubts whether a good or bad back has much to do with his recent mediocrity. If Griffin cannot beat Ortiz, he might be doomed to a career as a sardonic special attraction, not a serious contender. This is a fight where the loser leaves feeling lost.

Might Look Like: Ortiz’s fight with Vitor Belfort, a wild back-and-forth that confuses judges who are already struggling with common sense.

Wild Card: Absolutely Ortiz’s back: if he can continue taking effective shots for three rounds, Griffin will need a sewing kit for his forehead.

Who Wins: Griffin has his best success when opponents want to take batting practice with him; it’s not a game Ortiz has to play if he doesn’t want to. Ortiz by decision.