Preview: UFC Fight Night 125 ‘Machida vs. Anders’

Former Ultimate Fighting Championship light heavyweight king Lyoto Machida is the fighter most synonymous with the city of Belem, Brazil. On Saturday at the Guilherme Paranese Arena in his own backyard, he will main event UFC Fight Night 125, the promotion’s debut show in the city. Unfortunately, the circumstances could be better.

Machida, 39, is 1-4 in his last five fights. He has been savagely finished in his last three appearances. He was knocked silly by Derek Brunson on Oct. 28 and now he headlines opposite 10-0 Eryk Anders in his hometown. This bout was announced Dec. 14. “The Dragon” says he has no plans to hang up his gloves, but win or lose, this may be the most appropriate sendoff.

With that said, at least Valentina Shevchenko is finally cutting down to flyweight, we get to admire John Dodson’s 1000-watt smile and there is a Tim Means fight. Let us commence with our UFC Fight Night 125 analysis:

Middleweight

Lyoto Machida (22-8) vs. Eryk Anders (10-0)

ODDS: Anders (-275), Machida (+235).

ANALYSIS: It feels surreal to be writing about the very real danger of Machida being knocked out again; it seems like just yesterday I was grimly writing a preview about how Brunson was overwhelmingly likely to do the same thing. Unsurprisingly, given the recent nature of Machida’s last nasty knockout loss, a lot of the factors that go into making this a dicey proposition remain intact.

Machida may be one of the most recognizable southpaws in MMA history, but he has lost three straight bouts to lefties and explicitly struggled with that dynamic; now, he is facing another one. Admittedly, Machida has become a more active fighter since he began to work under Rafael Cordeiro at Kings MMA, but there just seems to be an overall athletic degradation, combined with the reality of his facing high-level competition, that has made this sudden decline seem especially visible. His lateral movement and traditional Shotokan karate concepts made him an all-time great defensive, economic MMA fighter, but much of the athleticism that fueled his stylistic success has regressed.

Anders, 30, is a plus-athlete and an MMA natural. He was as an inside linebacker for the University of Alabama’s national championship team in 2009, which seems to influence how people perceive him as a 10-0 prospect who made his pro debut two and a half years ago. However, Anders has underlying experience, with 22 amateur bouts dating back to 2012. His game reflects this, with a developed jab, his understanding of how to be a pressure fighter and highlight his physical gifts while embodying the old corny adage about “imposing your will.”

There are two scenarios that are especially troubling for Machida here. One is Anders’ natural forward-moving style and 5.70 significant strikes landed per minute, giving him the chance to put Machida straight back to the fence -- a longstanding problem for the Brazilian and something at which “Ya Boy” excels. The other is Anders either dropping Machida or simply taking him down along the fence, where he will exploit the former champ’s lack of defense off of his back, just as Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero did.

If Machida has one great performance left in him, now is the time. Whether it is one nasty head kick or one diving diagonal cross behind a feint, he needs it here. Machida is in his twilight and Anders possesses many of the tools and modes of fighting that have explicitly smashed him in recent outings. Anders winning via standing knockout or ground-and-pound within 10 minutes is the overwhelming likelihood here.

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