Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

Holly Holm (10-0) vs Miesha Tate (17-5)

THE MATCHUP: Ronda Rousey was not supposed to lose to Holm at UFC 193, but she did. In hindsight, we can see the elements of Holm’s style that so perfectly matched up with Ronda’s flaws. However, as the saying goes, hindsight is 20/20, and it would be a mistake to allow Holm’s stunning victory over Tate convince us of her infallibility. It would be as big a mistake to assume that Holm is as invulnerable now as it was when we thought Rousey was then. In other words, it would be a mistake to write off Tate.

Let us start with an honest assessment of the new champion. Holm knows the out-fighting playbook like few others in her division; Valentina Shevchenko is the only woman that seems to compare. She makes full use of her long-range tools -- straight lefts, side kicks and the like -- and holds her own in close, as well, giving her a variety of options when an opponent tries to force the pocket on her.

What Holm is not is a power puncher. Her MMA record is littered with knockouts, but every one of them came against an inexperienced and ill-prepared striker. Though we did not realize it at the time, that category included Rousey. We cannot discredit Holm’s success, but in Rousey, she had an opponent with a single-minded desire to enter the clinch and an opponent who lacked even the vaguest understanding of feints and head movement. Rousey ran desperately into Holm’s punches over and over, each collision exaggerated by the collision that preceded it; and she ended up on the end of Holm’s most dangerous weapon, her left high kick.

Taking all of this into account, Tate clearly has a few distinct advantages over Rousey. For one, Tate knows how to feint. Her last two opponents, Jessica Eye and Sara McMann, were both able to connect from long range at the start of their respective bouts. In both cases, Tate persevered and found her way into the range that suited her best. Particularly against Eye, Tate had to find a way past her opponent’s long, straight punches, just as she will have to against Holm. By feinting and intelligently mixing her attacks, she was able to do some serious damage.

In order to make these adaptations, Tate needed her most valuable asset: sheer toughness. Despite the nickname, she is no cupcake. No other fighter in the division is as willing to brawl or as capable of absorbing damage. What often goes overlooked, however, is the fact that few of Tate’s fights are brawls for long. She tends to start too aggressively and often pays the price, but within a round, she finds her most effective range, settles into her rhythm and goes to work. From Eye and McMann to Julie Kedzie, Marloes Coenen and Zoila Frausto, Tate’s resume is full of examples of her ability to not only withstand punishment but intelligently adapt to it.

THE ODDS: Holm (-345), Tate (+285)

THE PICK: As noted in the breakdown above, Tate is teak-tough and much smarter than she is usually given credit for. She is not likely to run into Holm’s punches for long, and she will almost certainly find ways to land shots of her own. Holm’s takedown defense has been stellar throughout her MMA career, however, and Tate has almost never won a fight in which she has not been able to gain top position. Unless Tate can knock down Holm with a punch, an unlikely scenario, then she will be forced to kickbox with the woman who turned Rousey into a strawberry-eating punching bag. It is not a completely untenable scenario for her, but it is definitely not a favorable one. Holm retains her title with a unanimous decision.

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