Preview: UFC 207 ‘Nunes vs. Rousey’

UFC Bantamweight Championship

Dominick Cruz (22-1) vs. Cody Garbrandt (10-0)

THE MATCHUP: There are a lot of ways to look at this fight. We could call it “young versus old” or “power versus skill” but to me, Cruz-Garbrandt is a battle of Layers versus Bursts. Garbrandt produces some of the most violent bursts in the entire bantamweight division, his power and killer instinct comparable only to contenders like John Lineker and Thomas Almeida, whom Garbrandt knocked out earlier this year. Meanwhile, Cruz is nothing but layers. It is nearly impossible to find a single moment that granted Cruz victory in any one of his fights. Rather than snatching victory out of the air like Garbrandt, Cruz has made a career of building victory soundly from the ground up.

Cruz is best known for moving his feet, but he also moves his head, his hips and his hands, all in a number of unpredictable ways. While some fighters are unpredictable because they do not follow any rules, Cruz simply seems to be following a very, very complex set of them. You can pick through any Cruz fight, especially his more recent ones, and find dozens and dozens of important details. His sidestep will set up a right hand first. When next it appears, it precedes an uppercut, followed by a series of jabs to keep the opponent’s mind from processing this information. The third sidestep might be a feint, but the fourth will reveal a beautiful knee-tap takedown, the likes of which are usually only seen in practice demonstrations. Everything Cruz does, no matter how hectic it may look, is part of a system.

Garbrandt is a systematic fighter in his own way. He, too, can set up a takedown with a right hand, and he is constantly looking to shift forward and sneak his left hand to the opponent’s head as it flies back to avoid his first punch. However, these are bursts, most sequences disconnected from one another. While Cruz fills the space between his attacks with an outrageous amount of intelligent movement, Garbrandt fills his with nothing but tension. In simple terms, Cruz moves, and Garbrandt waits.

The trouble with all of one’s offense coming from huge bursts of energy is that it requires one to set his feet. In other words, Garbrandt’s right hand-left hook style of attack is best suited for a relatively stationary opponent, standing relatively close. When a fighter like Cruz moves from side to side in tight circles, it does two things. One, it creates angles for offense: The opponent is forced to turn to keep up with Cruz, and the champion can sneak in a shot as he does so. Two, it prevents the opponent’s offense. If Cruz is constantly circling, Garbrandt will have to constantly turn to keep him from attacking those angles. Turning means moving his feet, which means he will have precious few opportunities to dig in his toes and explode. Unless Cruz gets cocky and lingers right in front of Garbrandt, “No Love” will either miss frequently or, perhaps worse, stop throwing altogether.

THE ODDS: Cruz (-210), Garbrandt (+180)

THE PICK: In the early days of boxing, promoters and managers developed a simple rule to help them make fights in a predictable manner, either to guarantee action or push a budding prospect. We call it the boxing trinity, and it goes like this: Slugger beats swarmer, swarmer beats boxer and boxer beats slugger. In other words, the flighty, technical fighter will beat the more static power puncher. Fighters are complex creatures, and all style designations are blurry, but this rule probably holds true at least two-thirds of the time; and though MMA offers a much wider array of offensive options than boxing, I expect that rule to adhere in the Octagon, as well. Cruz will move, Garbrandt will wait, miss, be taken down or any one of a number of options known only to “The Dominator.” The pick is Cruz by fifth-round TKO.

Next Fight » Dillashaw vs. Lineker