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UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

Rose Namajunas (7-3) vs. Joanna Jedrzejczyk (14-1)

THE ODDS: Jedrzejczyk (-110), Namajunas (+100)

ANALYSIS: Nothing at UFC 217 in November was more shocking than Namajunas’ demolition of Jedrzejczyk. “Joanna Champion,” as she was then called, was the best strawweight in history and the sport’s pound-for-pound queen. Everything changed when “Thug Rose” suddenly and emphatically blasted Jedrzejczyk from her perch atop the 115-pound mountain. Five months later, they will run it back to determine if it was a fluke or if the 25-year-old Namajunas is in fact the best 115-pound woman on the planet.

Jedrzejczyk is a former muay Thai world champion, and prior to her loss, she was making a case as one of the best strikers in MMA, period. She wields a sensational jab, a long, darting piston that scores, damages, interrupts and befuddles. She follows it with protracted combinations of stiff straight punches, punctuated by kicks. The Pole can use those kicks in much the same way as her jab. She will sting the inside and outside of the lead leg again and again, keeping distance while scoring points. The former champion is just as effective with these weapons moving forward or sliding away; and her clinch game is equally ferocious.

Jedrzejczyk played the matador exceptionally well against the brick-fisted Jessica Andrade in her last successful title defense. Rather than march down the Polish powerhouse as Andrade tried to do, Namajunas leaped through space to land her crushing left hook on Jedrzejczyk’s chin twice to devastating results. The American Top Team rep had a worrying tendency to get hit prior to getting knocked out. It was partly a product of her insane pace -- Jedrzejczyk lands a jaw-dropping 6.76 significant strikes per minute -- but she had also been stunned and dropped in otherwise dominant victories. Jedrzejczyk insists that her downfall was accelerated by an awful weight cut, and that would make her more prone to getting knocked out. However, if there were concerns about her chin before, they have grown exponentially louder in the aftermath of her first loss.

For Namajunas’ part, the victory at UFC 217 underscores her style. She is dynamic and one of the most natural finishers in the division. She made her name as a prospect with flashy and aggressive submissions, a skill she has refined and disciplined so that she no longer gives up position. Namajunas is still a lethal grappler, but her composure makes her even more dangerous; and as evidenced by her performance against Jedrzejczyk, she has married her athleticism, reach and natural power to solid fundamental footwork and distance management. Whether with head kicks or sudden two-punch combinations, she is a threat to finish.

Perhaps with a better-managed weight cut and a few tactical adjustments we see Jedrzejczyk regain her championship form. Perhaps she goes back to outlanding opponents by a 2-to-1 margin and beating them up in the clinch and wears out Namajunas as Karolina Kowalkiewicz did. However, I cannot get the image of Jedrzejczyk crumpling to the mat out of my head. My sense is that the 25-year-old Namajunas is just entering her prime as she reaches the pinnacle, which means she is continuing to get better. It takes longer in the rematch, but Namajunas finishes Jedrzejczyk again, this time in the second round.

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