Preview: UFC 269 ‘Oliveira vs. Poirier’

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UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship

C | Amanda Nunes (21-4, 14-1 UFC) vs. #3 WBW | Julianna Pena (10-4, 6-2 UFC)

ODDS: Nunes (-900), Pena (+600)

It felt a bit strange when Nunes winning the bantamweight title was the closing scene at UFC 200. The event was supposed to be the largest in promotional history, and Nunes was the clear B-side for her challenge against Miesha Tate, which itself was thrown into the main event slot on late notice. In retrospect, it was just a pre-emptive crowning moment for Nunes, who is now clearly the greatest female mixed martial artist to date. She has obliterated some challengers, like Ronda Rousey and Cristiane Justino, becoming the UFC women’s featherweight champion with that latter win; and some victories have been more drawn-out and uglier, but Nunes has lapped the field to the point that she is reigning over two divisions with no obvious challenger in either of them. Having spent the last year-plus cleaning out things at 145 pounds, Nunes returns to bantamweight against Pena, who basically talked her title shot into existence. The first female winner of “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2013, Pena’s career has struggled to gain momentum at times due to inactivity. She suffered a major knee injury shortly after her “Ultimate Fighter” win and has taken stretches of time off due to a combination of injuries and motherhood. At her best, “The Venezuelan Vixen” is a dogged wrestler who can grind out a victory through sheer aggression, but despite winning two of her three bouts since her pregnancy leave, she has yet to recapture her old form during that time. Her comeback against Nicco Montano was more even than expected, with Pena showing some ill-advised attempts to be a more cautious striker; and the victory over Sara McMann that earned Pena this title shot looked like a clear victory for the onetime Olympic silver medalist until she folded down the stretch. Of course, those wins came before and after one of the most embarrassing losses in recent memory, as Pena got choked unconscious by career striker Germaine de Randamie, whose ground game is notably poor. Despite Pena not even being the best of a bunch of bad options on paper—that honor probably goes to Irene Aldana—she has a surprisingly strong chance at an upset if we are grading on a curve.

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If there is one concern for Nunes, it is her gas tank, particularly at 135 pounds. Nunes notably conserved herself in a 2017 title defense against Valentina Shevchenko, and those issues popped up once again against de Randamie in 2019. With Nunes naturally bulking up with age and her splitting time at featherweight, those issues only figure to get worse, and that is even before factoring in that the Brazilian’s suffering from COVID-19 caused this fight to get pushed back from August. With that backdrop, Nunes might be beatable in deeper waters, even if it will take a high level of durability and a willingness to turn things into a grind in order to get the fight there. Pena checks both of those boxes in broad strokes, but there are some issues. Pena’s wrestling gets by more on strength than any sort of technique, and the bigger problem is that her striking defense is absolutely terrible. There is a lot in place that suggests Pena could score a decision or even a late submission—she is the most dangerous opponent for the “Lioness” on the mat since Rousey, particularly if Nunes gets tired—but she is going to get hit very hard very often by the champion before the fight gets there. That is usually enough to get Nunes the win. The pick is Nunes via first-round stoppage.

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