Preview: UFC on ESPN 46 ‘Kara-France vs. Albazi’

Featherweights

#15 FW | Alex Caceres (20-13, 15-11 UFC) vs. Daniel Pineda (28-14, 5-5 UFC)

ODDS: Caceres (-175), Pineda (+150)

It seems a bit surprising that this fight did not already happen as a UFC on Fuel TV prelim circa 2013, but a decade later, it looks to be an exciting pairing between two fighters who have improved through sheer experience. Caceres stood out on “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2010 thanks to his personality, and the promotion stuck with “Bruce Leeroy” through a rough start to his UFC career as he essentially learned on the job. Eventually Caceres racked up a string of wins to preserve his spot on the roster for good, even if the last decade has been equal parts entertaining and frustrating. Caceres has always shown flashes of obvious talent and creativity, but he has still mostly been content to let his opponent dictate the terms of engagement and flow with the fight from there. That tended to lead to a lot of unnecessary losses against one-dimensional specialists with any amount of focus, so it was a legitimate sign of progress when Caceres rattled off five straight wins from 2019 to 2021. All those victories came against beatable opponents, but it was always far from a guarantee that Caceres would show the type of mindfulness to actually beat them. A loss to Sodiq Yusuff in early 2022 established that Caceres still has a clear physical ceiling and is unlikely to charge up to contender status, but after scoring what was somehow the first knockout of his long UFC career against Julian Erosa in December, he is as effective as ever and seems to finally be hitting his prime. He will take on Pineda, who has also taken the long road to a late-career stride. “The Pit” had a fun but easily forgettable UFC run from 2012 to 2014, fighting seven times on the prelims before sliding out of the promotion. From there, he made his kill-or-be-killed approach work surprisingly well at the regional level, winning fight after fight until he earned a return engagement in 2020. Pineda has kept up that approach in the UFC, pressing the issue and throwing power until either he or his opponent breaks, though it has come with mixed results. Cub Swanson knocked him out and Andre Fili took him apart, but a March win over Tucker Lutz showed that Pineda can still overwhelm what looks to be a much steadier opponent on paper. Pineda brings enough heat that he figures to make some hay against Caceres, particularly early. However, Caceres now looks to finally be past the point of getting quickly overwhelmed. Given Pineda’s historical tendency to take himself out of the fight through sheer aggression—he still somehow has not won a decision in his 16 years as a pro fighter—the bet is that as long as Caceres survives, he will find a way to take over in huge fashion later on. The pick is Caceres via third-round submission.

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Kara-France vs. Albazi
Caceres vs. Pineda
Gordon vs. Miller
Elliott vs. Altamirano
Silva vs. Souza
Nurmagomedov vs. Zaleski dos Santos
The Prelims