UFC 130 Preview: The Main Card

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Heavyweights
Frank Mir vs. Roy Nelson

The Matchup: While heavyweights are known more for big-time punching power and stunning knockouts, Mir and Nelson fall into the well-rounded category. Nelson has been on the shelf since his one-sided decision loss to Junior dos Santos at UFC 117, where he showed a chin worthy of Mount Rushmore. Mir is 3-2 since he submitted Brock Lesnar in February 2008, as he has shown glimpses of an improved standup game sandwiched between brutal knockout losses to Lesnar and Shane Carwin.

In a heavyweight match, the better wrestler has the obvious edge, particularly when he is the harder hitter with more proven cardio. That is Nelson, in case you have not read between the lines. Do not be fooled by the belly -- “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 10 winner can dunk a basketball, and he is exceptional on the mat. Mir’s knockout wins over faded stars like Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira were admirable showings but must be placed in perspective.

This is Nelson’s fight to lose. He should be able to keep it at least even on the feet and will be stronger in the clinch. Mir’s submission game and guard could pose problems early, as he is great at exploiting small openings. That said, Nelson will probably look to wear down Mir on the feet and in the clinch.

The Pick: Look for Nelson to pick his spots, particularly in tie-ups, where Mir has shown a tendency to rest. Nelson will not let him, and he will step on the gas pedal, wearing down Mir for a third-round stoppage.

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