UFC 178 ‘Johnson vs. Cariaso’ Preview

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Donald Cerrone (24-6, 11-3 UFC) vs. Eddie Alvarez (25-3, 0-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: After finishing his last four opponents, quintessential action fighter Cerrone looks to run his winning streak to five against former Bellator lightweight champion Alvarez, who took the title from Michael Chandler in November and is riding a three-fight winning streak of his own. There is next to no chance that this fight turns into anything other than a delectable feast of entertaining violence, and it has the added bonus of being a potential title eliminator featuring two exceptional offensive fighters.

Although “Cowboy” is a three-dimensional fighter, he is mostly known for his crisp, technical muay Thai. His vicious kicks were once the centerpiece of his game, and while they remain his bread and butter, he has also grown into an above-average puncher. Moreover, his counter knees are some of the very best in the business. Cerrone can beat almost anybody in the division in a striking contest, but he is quite hittable, especially early in the fight before he has nailed down his opponent’s timing and sense of the distance. Cerrone also has problems absorbing body shots, a tendency numerous opponents -- Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis and Rafael dos Anjos come to mind -- have exploited. A capable wrestler, Cerrone’s takedown defense is good enough to stuff most of his opponents’ shots, and he has well-timed, explosive takedowns of his own, most notably his knee tap and blast double. His guard is one of the most active in the division, and his positional and submission games in transition are explosive and dangerous. Although his defensive striking is questionable, Cerrone’s varied arsenal and sterling technique make him one of the most dangerous offensive fighters in the division.

Like Cerrone, Alvarez is an offensive powerhouse with defensive liabilities. One of MMA’s best boxers, Alvarez’s staples are a sharp jab, a “soft” right in which the puncher steps forward with the left rather than the right as he throws and a punishing series of power shots with his left, including a vicious hook and uppercut. He counters beautifully in the pocket with two- to four-punch combinations and generally employs good head movement and angles. When he does get hit, however, Alvarez tends to eat big shots due to his poor posture and habit of leaving his head bent forward over his lead leg. A decorated high school wrestler, Alvarez shoots beautiful reactive takedowns and has a particularly nice single, while his defensive wrestling is generally good enough to keep him standing. The Philadelphian is not a special grappler, but he does have a nose for opportunistic positional advancements and submissions, especially the rear-naked choke.

BETTING ODDS: Alvarez (-110), Cerrone (-110)

THE PICK: This is an even-money fight, and the fact that both are so offensively talented and defensively questionable makes it even harder to predict. If Alvarez comes out blazing and immediately pushes the hittable Cerrone toward the fence, he can take the first round and set himself up for the rest of the fight. From a purely technical perspective, however, the fight favors Cerrone in both the striking and the grappling. He has the edge in height to exploit Alvarez’s limited outside game with a consistent diet of kicks, and in the pocket, Cerrone’s counter knees are the perfect tool to use against a fighter whose tendency to bob and weave accentuates his height disadvantage. In scrambles and transitions, Alvarez’s propensity to give up his back is bad news when faced with an opponent so adept at grabbing the position. Cerrone by decision is the pick in a fun, back-and-forth contest that features a bit of everything.

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