UFC 179 ‘Aldo vs. Mendes 2’ Preview

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Glover Teixeira (22-3, 5-1 UFC) vs. Phil Davis (12-2, 8-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Top-10 light heavyweights coming off losses in April meet in a key matchup. Teixeira was on the wrong end of a dominant decision against 205-pound kingpin Jon Jones, while the brick-fisted Anthony Johnson beat Davis from pillar to post. A slot in the top 5 and a chance at continued relevance are at stake here, and the winner is no more than two fights away from a title shot in a thin, aging division.

Davis is better than he showed in his last outing, but Johnson exposed several distinct problems with his game. The NCAA national champion and four-time All-American wrestler has not developed as a striker, and the root issue lies with his fundamentals. Davis reaches with his punches and gets little weight behind his shots, which robs them of power; he does not set up his rangy kicks with punches; and he reacts badly to getting hit, which means that he performs poorly in close-range exchanges. Additionally, his use of exaggerated movements and long steps to avoid strikes leaves him out of position to counter effectively. The former Penn State star’s wrestling is technical and slick, however, with a variety of finishes and great use of chained techniques. His shot is not especially explosive, though, and he struggles if his opponent stuffs his initial attempt and separates. On the ground, Davis maintains a heavy base, passes effortlessly and has a varied submission arsenal, with particular skill in transitions and with chokes from the front headlock.

Like Davis, Teixeira is a more dangerous and skilled fighter than his last opponent allowed him to demonstrate. The Brazilian is a fully three-dimensional fighter with excellent athleticism and big power in his hands, and his mixture of skills makes him a rough matchup for just about anybody in the division. At striking range, Teixeira is mostly a boxer, displaying a consistent preference for leading with the right hand and following with a clean, powerful left hook. Those punches carry Teixeira into infighting distance, where he prefers a snatch single-leg takedown, which does not require a level change but simply reaching down and grabbing the opponent’s leg. His finishes are quick and technical, and his takedown defense is nearly impenetrable. Aside from Jones and perhaps Rashad Evans, Teixeira has the most dangerous top game in the division, with brutal ground strikes, excellent passes and slick topside submissions, especially the arm-triangle.

BETTING ODDS: Teixeira (-285), Davis (+205)

THE PICK: The oddsmakers are overreacting to Davis’ loss here, but not by too much. Both fighters’ takedown defense means that this will likely be a striking match; Teixeira has almost nothing to offer at kicking distance, while Davis can eat up large chunks of time and wear down the Brazilian with his low and middle kicks at long range. At punching distance, however, this is all Teixeira, and I expect him to tag the American repeatedly with that vicious right hand as he works his incessant pressure game and pushes Davis toward the cage. Teixeira by decision with a possibility of a knockout is the pick, but a Davis upset would not be particularly surprising.

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