Preview: UFC 197 ‘Jones vs. St. Preux’

Lightweights

Anthony Pettis (18-4) vs Edson Barboza (16-4)

THE MATCHUP: Pettis has had a rough go of it lately. A crushing defeat at the hands of Rafael dos Anjos saw “Showtime” lose the lightweight title, only to be stifled and beaten by Eddie Alvarez in his comeback fight. Now on the first losing streak of his career, Pettis hopes to rebound against a striker just as dynamic and dangerous as himself -- Barboza.

Every one of Pettis’ last three fights has shown the same problem: He fights as if he has no notion of his own vulnerability. Pettis accepts whatever range or phase his opponent forces on him and looks for a way to turn it to his advantage. When striking, Pettis is too content to have his back on the fence, and happy to swing counterpunches at his opponent with both feet squared. In the clinch, Pettis does not fight urgently to improve his position. On the ground, Pettis is happy to play guard while his opponent racks up time in top position.

Pettis is so powerful, accurate, and dynamic that he has been able to overcome this flaw in the past. He has excellent timing and sneaks in shots designed to disincentivize his opponents from pressuring him. Pettis also chooses to fight out of open stance whenever possible; when the opponent fights orthodox, he fights southpaw, and vice versa. This creates a wider gap between Pettis and his opponent, giving him more time to find openings. Still, these are workarounds, not solutions to Pettis’ persistent problem.

Where Pettis is prone to overconfidence in vulnerable positions, Barboza seems to feel vulnerable even when he has the upper hand, though recent performances show a great deal of improvement in this regard. Because of the spectacular nature of his wins, it can be hard to keep in mind that Barboza has not been doing this very long. He recently marked just the sixth year since his professional debut. It should not surprise us then to see that Barboza is only now starting to perform at his full potential; and he has. In wins and losses, Barboza has improved by leaps and bounds since his defeat to Donald Cerrone two years ago at UFC on Fox 11.

Like Pettis, Barboza has always had a knack for kicks. Since notching two leg-kick TKOs in 2010 and wheel kicking Terry Etim into the astral plane, fans have known him to be dangerous with both legs. Barboza’s boxing and cagecraft, on the other hand, have dramatically improved. Under the watchful eye of Mark Henry, Barboza has learned to navigate the Octagon. Never staying still for long, he punctuates lateral movement with quick counterpunches, usually throwing two or three shots at a time before circling away and resetting. Unlike “Showtime,” Barboza has a keen awareness of his position in the cage and fights strategically to keep his back off the fence.

With that awareness comes confidence. Once easily rattled, Barboza is now content to rely on his training when the going gets tough, countering and moving until the opponent is forced to lay off. In Michael Johnson, Paul Felder and Tony Ferguson, Barboza has faced a trio of dangerous pressure fighters and come out looking good, despite losing to two of the three.

THE ODDS: Pettis (-170), Barboza (+145)

THE PICK: Cagecraft would seem to be the determining factor in this fight. Though I personally thought Pettis won his bout with Alvarez, I was not surprised to see the judges give Alvarez the nod -- nor, I hope, was Pettis. Though Barboza will not wrestle Pettis the way Alvarez did, he will seek to maintain a dominant position in the Octagon. Likewise, Barboza will not have to worry about Pettis pressuring him, which will allow him to open up. Unless Pettis has made serious strategic leaps since January, he will be forced once again to rely on dynamism, accuracy and power to beat Barboza. Given his track record, it could absolutely work, but that is not the kind of game plan upon which one can rely. The pick is Barboza by unanimous decision.

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