Middleweights
Yoel Romero (13-3) vs. Paulo Henrique Costa (12-0)Advertisement
It is a pleasure to see Romero back in the cage, as he makes for one of the most fascinating figures in the sport, both inside and outside of the Octagon. A former Olympic silver medalist in wrestling for his native Cuba, Romero somehow continues to look like an action figure despite being well into his 40s. While his hulking frame suggests he gets by in fights purely on physicality, Romero possess an underrated amount of smarts for the martial arts. Few fighters are as talented at processing information and figuring out their opponent’s weakness, which is why Romero has a ton of third-round finishes on his record. Romero just stays patient and probes his opponents for reactions, often to the point of giving away rounds, before suddenly striking with a burst of violence that puts a quick end to things. Sometimes the margins are narrow if Romero cannot secure a finish, but more often than not, his bouts end with something ridiculous like his splitting Chris Weidman’s head open with a flying knee. Robert Whittaker has proven to be the one nut Romero cannot crack despite his best efforts. Both fights between the two have been absolute wars that have seen Whittaker fight back from adversity to earn decision victories. Since their last bout, Romero has been out of action, with the one constant being that the UFC has tried to match him up against an undefeated Brazilian prospect in Costa. After three separate attempts to make the fight fell apart, the fourth time appears to be the charm.
It has been hard to square Costa’s forgettable stint on the third season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil” with the man who made his proper UFC debut three years later, as “Borrachinha” suddenly developed a jacked physique and the ability to knock out everyone in front of him. At first, Costa looked like the typical sort of prospect who gets by on knockout power and little else, but he has shown some evolution in his four UFC bouts, with his fight against Uriah Hall being both an exciting scrap and an excellent performance. Costa uses his ability to march down opponents, and he has learned to pick and choose his shots. What were once attempts at the sudden knockout have become some surprisingly effective combinations that still have the strength behind them to put down an opponent. From look to fight style, Costa has every tool to be a future star for the UFC going forward, and this bout represents a chance to speed up that timeline.
Romero is an admittedly tough matchup even for experienced opponents, but this still feels like too much too soon for Costa. The Brazilian might manage to win rounds early based on volume -- as many Romero opponents do -- but it is difficult to see him scoring a finish before Romero starts to turn up things for the kill. Costa is accustomed to being the bully, which makes things interesting against the rare man who can overpower him. If Costa takes his usual approach of marching forward to cause damage, it is easy to see Romero’s wrestling as a skill that the former title challenger can use to take over the bout. At the same time, trying to play a patient range game only gives Romero more opportunity to get comfortable and start letting loose with some brutality. Maybe Costa is one of the few who can survive Romero’s late offense to hang on for the decision win, but a Romero third-round finish seems like a safe bet most of the time. The pick is Romero via TKO in Round 3.
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