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Featherweights

#11 FW | Bryce Mitchell (14-0, 5-0 UFC) vs. #10 FW | Edson Barboza (22-10, 16-10 UFC)

ODDS: Mitchell (-160), Barboza (+140)

Mitchell seems set on making people take notice of everything but his fighting skills, but despite that, the Arkansas native is a potential future contender to watch. “Thug Nasty” showed off his impressive ground skills during his season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” but the one-dimensional nature of his overall game figured to catch up with him at some point. That has not happened yet. Part of that is due to Mitchell developing an awkward but effective striking game to supplement his grappling, but a lot of this is due to his being ridiculously impressive on the mat to a level that most did not expect. Once Mitchell capped off 2019 by locking Matt Sayles into just the second twister submission in UFC history, it became apparent that he would be a force to be reckoned with. His 2020 campaign saw a bit of a further breakout, as Mitchell put in three rounds of easy work against Charles Rosa before getting the biggest win of his career against Andre Fili. After missing all of 2021, the time is right for Mitchell to get a shot at true contender status, hence this big spot against Barboza.

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A move down to featherweight was not a fix-all for Barboza, but there are worse fates than remaining a Top 10 fighter. It is a bit stunning to see just how raw Barboza was upon his UFC debut in 2010, as he was less than two years into his career at a point when fighters simply did not get the call that early. However, “Junior” held his own on the UFC roster in impressive fashion, winning four straight bouts until Jamie Varner was able to blitz him and knock him out for a huge upset. That became the book on Barboza. Given space, he was among the most vicious strikers in the UFC, particularly with his signature kicking game, but constant pressure would continually send Barboza moving backwards and make him much less effective. After losing four of five at lightweight, albeit all against strong competition, Barboza made the surprising move of cutting down to 145 pounds. Frankly, the move did not change much. Barboza appeared to be a bit more of a bully in a controversial loss to Dan Ige, but through four fights at 145 pounds, he is much the same fighter with much the same issues. That makes for an interesting fight against Mitchell, who does not always invest in the type of pressure that typically throws Barboza off his game. Mitchell certainly figures to press his wrestling, but Barboza is not likely to experience much discomfort while this fight is on the feet, making things a bit more difficult for the American. With Mitchell being quite awkward and hittable in standup exchanges, there is a universe where Barboza—who is sneakily large at featherweight—is successfully able to keep this standing and chop Mitchell down. However, the safest bet does seem to be that Mitchell does just enough with his wrestling to squeak out a difficult win. The pick is Mitchell via decision.

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