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Women’s Flyweights

Andrea Lee (11-4) vs. Roxanne Modafferi (24-17)

ODDS: Lee (-320), Modafferi (+260)

This rematch between Modafferi and Lee represents some strong matchmaking. Even beyond this bout helping to sort out things near the top of the UFC’s still-fledgling women’s flyweight division, it will be interesting to see how the situation has changed since a 2014 fight that was crucial for both women. Modafferi’s career was essentially left for dead circa 2013. After a decade in the sport, “The Happy Warrior” had racked up six straight losses, as her savvy grappling hit the wall of diminishing returns against younger and better athletes. However, a camp change and a cut to flyweight proved to work wonders. While her newly developed striking was not the picture of perfect form, it was functional enough to make her entire game click, beginning with wins over Lee and Tara LaRosa. Since then, Modafferi has chugged along as a fringe contender even into her late 30s, and while her recent losses have shown that there is still a physical ceiling against the top tier of flyweights, she remains capable of absolutely embarrassing a raw prospect, as she did against Maycee Barber in January.

In that 2014 fight against Modafferi, it was Lee who was that raw prospect. It made more sense at the time given Modafferi’s recent struggles, but in retrospect, it seems absolutely cruel that Lee was matched against such a tough veteran in just her third professional fight. Lee has seemingly always been the next coming fighter at flyweight, which has made her career a bit frustrating, even if she has still been quite successful. For all of her hype as a striker and her physically built frame, Lee has never flashed much knockout ability. While she is technically sound, her relative lack of speed means there just is not the type of surprise that can catch her opponents off-guard for a quick finish. However, the flipside is that Lee can be an underrated bruiser in the clinch and on top of her opponents, with some surprisingly solid submissions, to boot. In another universe, Lee would be the next woman up for Valentina Shevchenko, as she has certainly proven to be at the level of the current top contenders. Unfortunately, her last two bouts—against Joanne Calderwood and Lauren Murphy—both resulted in razor-thin decisions that went against her. Lee gets a big opportunity to rebound with a win here, as well as prove how far she has come in the last six years.

If the first fight had never happened, this would be a much easier case for Lee, given her physical advantages and the fact that she can be quite solid in the clinch. However, after re-watching their initial encounter, there is some concern that for all of Lee’s improvements in the years since, there is not much she has done to shore up the holes that Modafferi exposed in 2014. Lee has developed much more potent offense in the clinch and on the ground, but the fact remains that when her opponent can initiate those grappling exchanges, she remains quite easy to take down. On the plus side for Lee, this fight should be all hers for as long as the two are in a kickboxing match. She may be relatively slow, but she still has more than enough in terms of athleticism and firepower to outmatch a non-athlete like Modafferi. With that said, Modafferi sticks to her game plan and should be able to control the terms of this fight with her wrestling, and even if she fails to get a lot done once she gets there, it should still be enough to win rounds. The pick is for the second verse to be the same as the first: Modafferi via decision.

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