Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Whittaker vs. Brunson’

Welterweights

Kyle Noke (22-9-1) vs. Omari Akhmedov (15-4)

THE MATCHUP: The last year has been a rough one for Akhmedov. The Dagestani sambo practitioner was knocked out in each of his last two contests, although he was not effortlessly overcome in either one. Neither loss gives us cause to question Akhmedov’s well-rounded skills. The problem, instead, appears to be twofold. On the one hand, he executes absolutely everything with power, meaning everything he does takes a great deal of energy: takedowns, overhands, submission attempts. On the other, Akhmedov’s chin seems to be a little weak, especially after his gas tank begins to run dry.

Akhmedov gets a good opportunity to come back against Noke, a striker who will test his stamina without threatening his chin the way Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos did. Noke’s strength is his kicking. He has great dexterity with both legs and delights in mixing up spinning attacks with snapping high kicks and rib-cracking front kicks, like the one he used to flatten Peter Sobotta a year ago. In boxing range, Noke is prone to standing tall with both hands extended, making him an inviting target for Akhmedov’s heavy hands. However, he has also gotten better at staying mobile and denying his opponent that range.

The grappling exchanges should be crucial in this fight. Akhmedov has an excellent reactive double-leg, and he is dangerous with submissions, both from guard and in top position. Noke’s takedown defense is not the best, but he is dangerous from his back. Recently, he has counterbalanced his old-school guard game with a new-school attention to scrambling. There was a time when Noke would happily play guard for the duration of a round, but that tendency is currently being trained out.

THE PICK: Durability will be a big factor in this fight. Akhmedov does not yet have a habit of being knocked out, but two KOs in a row does not bode well for his future in MMA. Noke, on the other hand, has been fighting elite competition for a very long time now and has only ever been knocked out once -- by the heavy-handed Scott Smith in 2008. Noke will likely lose some exchanges in the early going, but unless Akhmedov has made some serious adjustments to his style, the Aussie will be there to come back as he fades. The pick is Noke by hard-fought unanimous decision.

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