UFC 158 ‘St. Pierre vs. Diaz’ Preview

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Welterweights

Jake Ellenberger (28-6, 7-2 UFC) vs. Nate Marquardt (32-11-2, 10-4 UFC)

The Matchup: Marquardt steps in as a replacement for Johny Hendricks, who moved to the co-main event to face Carlos Condit after Rory MacDonald withdrew from the card due to a neck injury. The former middleweight King of Pancrase had an abbreviated stint as Strikeforce welterweight king, capturing the vacant crown by defeating Tyron Woodley in July before falling to Tarec Saffiedine at the promotion’s swan song earlier this year. Despite being a solid favorite, Marquardt had no answer for Saffiedine’s steady barrage of leg kicks, marking yet another disappointing loss in a high-profile bout for “The Great.”

Ellenberger, meanwhile, displayed a more measured approach in earning a unanimous verdict over Jay Hieron at UFC on FX 5 in October. After starting fast and fading in a loss to Martin Kampmann and a win over Diego Sanchez, the Nebraskan was more patient against Hieron, landing the occasional power punch while mixing in takedowns in a workmanlike performance.

In 45 professional fights, only Anderson Silva has been able to finish Marquardt with strikes, so Ellenberger must be careful not to empty his gas tank in the opening frame against the High Altitude Martial Arts representative. Marquardt is durable, but his striking defense is hardly impenetrable; both Saffiedine and Woodley were able to rock him with well-placed punches. Ellenberger and Marquardt are dangerous counterpunchers, which could lead to an extended feeling-out process.

Marquardt fares well when he is the better wrestler, but Ellenberger should be able to employ his favored sprawl-and-brawl tactics should his opponent decide to shoot for a takedown. Conversely, Ellenberger might be able to fare better with his own takedown shots, since Marquardt is not known for exceptional defensive wrestling. If he is taken down, Marquardt’s ability to create space with his guard and escape to his feet will be crucial, as Ellenberger employs heavy ground-and-pound from top position.

On the feet, Marquardt is the more diverse striker, capable of landing a variety of combinations once he establishes a rhythm. Ellenberger relies on a stout jab to control distance, while the counter left hook is his knockout punch. Both men are aggressive offensively in the clinch and are capable of generating powerful strikes with knees or elbows in close quarters.

The Pick: When both fighters have fight-ending power in their hands, there tends to be a certain level of respect during standup exchanges. Assuming he does not wear down in the later portion of the fight, Ellenberger will turn the fight in his favor with a few key takedowns and ultimately win via decision.

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