UFC Fight Night ‘Bader vs. St. Preux’ Preview

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Middleweights

Tim Boetsch (17-7, 8-6 UFC) vs. Brad Tavares (12-2, 7-2 UFC)

The Matchup: There was a time, not all that long ago, when Boetsch had worked his way into the conversation at the top of the middleweight division. Since his massive upsets over Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard, however, he has dropped three of his last four, with the only win a questionable decision over C.B. Dollaway in October. Boetsch is fighting for his job against Tavares, who has developed into a consummately well-rounded young fighter under the tutelage of Ray Sefo. Yoel Romero tossed Tavares around the cage in his last outing, but prior to that the Hawaiian rode a five-fight winning streak to the fringes of the middleweight top 10.

The core of Boetsch’s game has always been his Division I wrestling, but he has struggled to impose his takedowns recently, completing only three of 23 attempts in his last six fights. Failing takedowns, Boetsch is a capable infighter, with stifling control, strong knees and vicious punches in the clinch powered by his beastly strength. At range, Boetsch tends to plod, but he throws a hard right hand and a sharp front kick; nevertheless, he has real trouble winning fights without being able to consistently put in work at close range and from top position.

Tavares is a jack-of-all-trades who throws clean punch-kick combinations at range, can shoot respectable takedowns and works solid control from the top, all of which are made more effective by his above-average speed and strength. He lacks high-end power in his strikes, however, and while he possesses excellent cardio, his offensive output is too limited to guarantee victories in matches that take place exclusively on the feet. Tavares’s wrestling is opportunistic. He times his shots well, usually against the fence where he has a greater chance of landing his takedowns, and defensively he has proven to be solid against everyone but one of the world’s best in Romero. He is still growing and improving as a fighter, however, and it would be a mistake to underestimate his potential for growth.

Betting Odds: Tavares (-260), Boetsch (+210)

The Pick: This fight favors Tavares even more than the betting lines indicate. He has the defensive wrestling to stuff Boetsch’s takedowns, and his minor flaws on the feet -- low output and a lack of power -- are hardly areas that “The Barbarian” is equipped to exploit. I expect Tavares’ athleticism and clean combinations, along with his higher output, to be enough to win a match contested mostly at striking distance and in the clinch. Tavares earns a unanimous decision.

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