Preview: UFC 222 ‘Cyborg vs. Kunitskaya’

Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski (26-5) vs. Stefan Struve (28-9)

ODDS: Struve (-185), Arlovski (+160)

ANALYSIS: Most wonder whether this fight should be happening at all, but alas, here we are. Struve is just 30 years old, but his 19-fight UFC tenure has been marked by several grisly knockout losses, most recently eating the canvas against former Bellator MMA heavyweight champion Alexander Volkov in September. In his seven UFC losses, the 6-foot-11 Dutchman has been knocked out six times; only Jared Rosholt defeated him without positively clobbering him. He has contemplated retirement several times, and in fact, large swaths of fans have been calling for the “Skyscraper” to hang up his gloves for several years, given the nasty nature of some of his defeats.

Meanwhile, Arlovski just turned 39 years old last month and while the former UFC heavyweight champion got his hand raised last time out in a dry affair with Junior Albini, “The Pitbull” had lost five straight bouts heading into the fight and had been stopped in four of them. While the Belarussian’s shaky chin has always been his Achilles’ heel, for most of his career, Arlovski presented as the prototype heavyweight athlete. Now you can see the vestiges of that athleticism in brief flashes, but mostly he looks like a faded fighter whose spirit is willing but his flesh is not.

With 84 inches of reach, Struve will have a seven-inch advantage over Arlovski, but problematically, the Dutchman has never been great at actually utilizing that reach. He does not kick enough, and when he does, his head is perpetually rigid and in the air. He throws a bizarre array of flying and lunging strikes, which only make him more susceptible to counter opportunities. His favorite punch is the rear uppercut with his right hand, but he constantly throws it cold with no setup. While the recent incarnation of Arlovski is worthy of critique for being so inactive, if anything, Struve is too active. Struve actually won the opening round against Volkov but essentially opted to fight at a pace he could not sustain. Volkov then began diligently picking him apart before the third-round knockout.

One thing Struve has going for him here though is that in his current lackadaisical form Arlovski’s once-outstanding takedown defense has withered; and as shown in his loss to Marcin Tybura, his athleticism can no longer make up for his weak positional grappling. Struve is actually a nifty grappler, and if he is able to get Arlovski down from the clinch using his height and leverage or if he drops “The Pit Bull” and can dive on him, Struve can do damage with ground-and-pound or find a submission.

Given both fighters’ historically iffy chins and the erosion of their physicality, this fight figures to come down to which fighter lands first with gusto. We at least know that Struve is going to come out and attack his opponent from Jump Street, and he still has more ways to win the fight. It is impossible to be fully confident in this fight’s outcome, but based on being the fresher and more aggressive fighter with more ways to implement offense, Struve by strike-induced stoppage in the first eight minutes is the call.

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