Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Arlovski vs. Barnett’

Lightweights

Nick Hein (13-2) vs. Tae Hyun Bang (18-9)

THE MATCHUP: Bang is extremely tough. He remains the only fighter in the UFC to have been beaten by Mairbek Taisumov without being knocked out. He has also gone the distance with Jorge Masvidal and Takanori Gomi. Bang is 2-2 in the UFC, and he has never been knocked out. More valuable than Bang’s durability is his faith in it. Hein has beaten three UFC opponents with a fairly small set of skills. He moves side to side, throws short combinations based around his left hand and sometimes clinches with his opponent in order to pursue the takedown. Hein is strong, but his power is far from otherworldly, and he has only stopped one opponent via strikes. Still, most of Hein’s past opponents have treated him like a puncher, giving him space and time to work.

By trusting in his chin, Bang may very well be able to pressure Hein in a way that past opponents simply have not. Far from being a walking heavy bag, however, Bang rarely takes shots without cause. The Korean slugger likes to fight with a low guard, using small movements of the upper body to defend his head and then launching heavy counters from invisible angles. Per FightMetric, his rate of significant strike defense is actually identical to Hein’s (64 percent), with Hein absorbing a slightly higher number of strikes per minute.

Movement and grappling are Hein’s saving graces in this matchup. With constant lateral movement, of the kind he used to neutralize Lukasz Sajewski, Hein can prevent Bang from closing the distance at will and force the heavy hitter to tire. By the third round, Bang’s output tends to drop by about 50 percent. By drawing Bang into a chase, Hein will also expose Bang’s hips for takedown attempts. As a judoka, leg attacks are not Hein’s greatest strength, but he has used them in the past to slow aggressive opponents. At 57 percent, Bang’s takedown defense is not stellar, but then again, neither is Hein’s takedown game. Still, the German would be ill-advised to allow Bang the boxing match he will want.

THE ODDS: Hein (-212), Bang (+177)

THE PICK: Bang and Hein represent two very different approaches. Hein’s game is all about simple, reliable strategy. He moves around a lot, keeps up a steady output and uses his grappling skills to control the pace and location of the fight. Bang, on the other hand, is a tactician, pure and simple. He spares little thought for what might happen in the next round or the one after, focusing solely on winning the exchanges. He throws nothing but power punches but strings them together nicely, and he throws with surprising speed and power. Normally that kind of matchup might favor Hein, except for two factors. First, Hein’s skill simply has not developed much in the six years he has been training MMA. His game is smartly constructed, but his technique is lacking. Second, Bang has more than enough heart to keep pressing long after his gas tank has run dry, as seen in his gutsy fight with Leo Kuntz in November. The pick is Bang by first-round TKO.

Last Fights » The Prelims