Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rockhold vs. Bisping’

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HEAVYWEIGHTS

Soa Palelei (21-4, 3-2 UFC) vs. Walt Harris (7-3, 0-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Palelei and Harris meet in what promises to be a fun, sloppy scrap between two heavyweight bruisers. Palelei is 3-1 in his second UFC stint, with his most recent outing ending in a decision loss to the rising Jared Rosholt, while Harris makes his return to the promotion following a win over D.J. Linderman in regional competition.

The Australian Palelei, who boasts a wrestling game nearly slick enough for international competition, is enormous, athletic and ridiculously powerful. With that said, he has almost no skills on the feet and is essentially hopeless if the fight goes past the first round. Still, we should not undersell his technical skill as a wrestler: He times his shots beautifully, shows tremendous drive and finishes with authority. Once he has his opponent on the ground, he looks for a quick, slick guard pass and moves to knee-on-belly or the mount, where he unloads a stream of go-to-sleep punches until his opponent is out. That is his entire game, and because of his physical tools, it actually works pretty well.

Outside the increasingly rare divisional elite, heavyweights essentially fall into two categories: big athletes without much in the way of diverse or well-rounded skills, and skilled guys without much in the way of athleticism. Harris is the former. A collegiate basketball player in his youth, Harris is fast and light on his feet for such a big man, and he whirls a quick, powerful straight left from his southpaw stance as his preferred attack. His takedown defense is predicated almost entirely on his athleticism and balance, and, in general, Harris lacks polish in any facet of his game. Still, his athleticism makes him a threat in any fight.

BETTING ODDS: Palelei (-165), Harris (+145)

THE PICK: If Harris were a better wrestler or had a deeper gas tank, he might be the pick here, given Palelei’s distinct and deeply established weaknesses. However, he is not a good wrestler, and he does not have a particularly deep gas tank. Palelei will blast a double the first time Harris plants his feet and throws, pounding him out from top position shortly thereafter. Palelei wins by knockout in round one.

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