Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Rodriguez vs. Penn’

Flyweights

John Moraga (16-5) vs. Sergio Pettis (14-2)

THE MATCHUP: Since his momentum-halting loss to Ryan Benoit, Pettis has flown under the radar, the high expectations he carried into the UFC muted by Benoit’s left hook and subsequent butt kick. Do not let that feeling fool you; I call this phenomenon “the Ryan Bader effect” and it goes like this: A fighter with potential loses in emphatic and borderline humiliating fashion and gets written off for good. However, just like Bader, Pettis remains a very good fighter with lots of room to grow.

As the younger brother of former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis, he has always been viewed through the lens of his brother’s success. However, he is a very different fighter. The older Pettis has always been something of a slave to his own talent. Capable of ending fights in the blink of an eye with his disjointed collection of high-flying kicks, “Showtime” has never really developed the fundamental base on which most fighters rely. The younger Pettis may prefer the same ranges and positions, but he is every bit the subtle, strategic kickboxer that his brother is not. He is precise and fluid, mixing his punches and kicks beautifully while maintaining distance and smoothly navigating the cage. He is one of a few fighters who seem almost perfectly ambidextrous, fighting comfortably from both stances; and while the Roufusport rep has an excellent guard just like his brother, he is rarely keen to rely on it and uses his lateral movement to deny takedown attempts -- something his brother struggles to do.

Now that Pettis has two straight wins under his belt, Moraga is a perfect opponent to test whether he is ready for the top of the heap. Moraga is not perfectly consistent against elite competition, but he is the flyweight division’s Ricardo Lamas -- a sharp-eyed opportunist who stays constantly ready to capitalize on the slightest opening. This could be a powerful ability against Pettis, whose two losses both came suddenly when he seemed to lose focus and allowed his opponent into the fight.

Moraga is also technically capable of testing Pettis in every phase. Which version of Moraga will show up is always doubtful, but at his best, he is a sharp, technical boxer with good pop in his hands. Moraga is a workmanlike takedown artist at best, but he is a very good scrambler with a nose for submissions in transitions. His guillotine is a particularly potent weapon. Moraga throws on average only five significant strikes per minute. If he can nudge that number up to about seven or eight strikes per minute, as he did in his fight with Willie Gates, then he could put enough pressure on Pettis to test his resolve.

THE ODDS: Pettis (-142), Moraga (+122)

THE PICK: Moraga is capable of applying pressure. He is comfortable in the pocket and knows how to rack up damage in the clinch; and because Moraga is such a great finisher, Pettis will need to stay sharp and focused for all 15 minutes to keep himself safe. However, Pettis dealt very well with the pressure of Chris Kelades and even showed off some new takedown skills to help nullify the constant aggression. Moraga is dangerous, but Pettis is simply a more put-together fighter. The pick is Pettis by unanimous decision.

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