Preview: UFC on ESPN 1 ‘Ngannou vs. Velasquez’

Featherweights

Alex Caceres (14-11) vs. Kron Gracie (4-0)

ODDS: Gracie (-340), Caceres (+280)

The UFC finally has another member of the First Family on its roster. This time, it is Rickson Gracie’s youngest son making his debut. The 30-year-old Gracie has at least proven himself to a degree in Rizin Fighting Federation, scoring wins over veterans Hideo Tokoro and Tatsuya Kawajiri, but his style seems like it might be a tough needle to thread against a lot of UFC competition. Gracie is a willing striker, and to his credit seems able to take a lot of damage, but his game appears to consist mostly of plodding forward into the clinch and throwing power until he decides to pull guard and let his submission game go to work. Admittedly, his Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills live up to the family name, but it will be interesting to see if Gracie develops the necessary secondary skills to set up those submissions. At any rate, Caceres should provide a solid litmus test to see how tough the path is going forward.

Somehow, Caceres has made it to 20 UFC fights, and it is fitting that he is batting about .500 given that the only thing consistent about him is his inconsistency. The UFC saw some potential in Caceres -- or just liked his showy “Bruce Leeroy” persona -- so the promotion let him develop on its dime; and while he never quite got over the hump as a contender, he has proven to be a reliable action fighter. Caceres does a lot of stuff. He has some flashy but loose striking and some solid submission skill, but he is wild and defensively open with everything, so from fight to fight -- and even round to round -- it remains anyone’s guess as to how successful any of it will be. At the very least, Caceres did basically get to live out his dream in a main event against Yair Rodriguez, a fight which both men treated like a real-life martial arts movie.

Gracie’s style should not work all that well at this level, especially as he faces better athletes. He does not have much of a way to set up his submissions, so someone is probably just going to pick him apart from a distance over 15 minutes sooner rather than later. Caceres has all the tools to be that guy, but that depends on his fighting a smart fight for three rounds, which is usually a losing bet. Caceres is still a tempting upset pick, but the call is for Gracie to win via third-round submission.

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