UFC Fight Night ‘MacDonald vs. Saffiedine’ Preview

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Elias Theodorou (9-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Bruno Santos (14-1, 1-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The middleweight winner of “The Ultimate Fighter Nations” returns to action, as Theodorou faces off with Brazilian grinder Santos. The Canadian dominated Sheldon Westcott to take the “Ultimate Fighter” crown in April, while Santos is coming off a contentious split decision victory over Chris Camozzi in July. Santos’ grinding approach will serve as a stiff but winnable test for the talented but untried Theodorou, whose camera-ready looks and charisma make him a potential star for the promotion’s Canadian fanbase.

Theodorou is a physical talent with an aggressive and well-rounded game powered by outstanding cardio. He is perfectly competent at striking range -- he looses a consistent diet of powerful kicks and punching combinations as he moves forward -- but his clinch work is the best part of his game. The Canadian makes good use of head pressure and underhooks for control while switching seamlessly to the double-collar tie, where he excels at unleashing a steady stream of pinpoint knee strikes. Theodorou is no slouch as a wrestler, either, and features a powerful double-leg and a competent sprawl. He also has a rare gift for delivering offense in transition and when his opponent is locked up and attempting takedowns.

Grinding is Plan A, Plan B and Plan C for bricked-up Brazilian Santos. While he is not exactly a bad striker, wielding a powerful if limited arsenal of looping punches and low kicks, his lack of height at 5-foot-9 makes it difficult for him to get into range against taller opponents. Instead, strikes serve to disguise Santos’ clinch entries and level changes, allowing him to get close enough to work his grinding style against the fence. His control from the clinch is stifling, and while he is not a terribly technical wrestler, the Brazilian is brutally strong and perfectly capable of dragging his opponent to the mat. From top position, Santos relies on his heavy base and prefers to work control and passes rather than ground strikes or submissions. There is nothing exciting about Santos’ game, but there is no denying its effectiveness.

BETTING ODDS: N/A

THE PICK: This matchup drastically favors Theodorou. Santos’ preference for grinding his opponent in the clinch and with takedown attempts plays directly into Theodorou’s dynamic inside game and ability to deliver offense in the form of elbows and knees as his opponent tries to drag him to the mat. The fight is all Theodorou at range, where he holds advantages in volume and technical skill. If that were not enough, Theodorou has a massive edge in cardio. I think the Canadian will use his punishing pace to wear down Santos early in the fight and finish the exhausted Brazilian with strikes in the third round.

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