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Middleweights

Yushin Okami (28-7, 12-4 UFC) vs. Hector Lombard (32-3-1, 1-1 UFC)

The Matchup: After a tepid and puzzling performance against Tim Boetsch in his UFC debut, Hector Lombard reminded everyone what all the hype was about with a first-round knockout of leg lock specialist Rousimar Palhares at UFC on FX 6. The former Bellator MMA middleweight king has won 21 of his last 22 fights and would be an attractive title contender for the promotion if he is able to string a few quality victories together.

Okami is no mere steppingstone, however. Back-to-back victories over Buddy Roberts and Alan Belcher have helped to erase the memory of the Japanese fighter’s shocking come-from-ahead loss to Boetsch at UFC 144. Okami was in prime form against Belcher, as he used ground-and-pound and positional dominance to capture a unanimous verdict.

Ideally, Lombard would like this bout to end swiftly. The American Top Team product prefers to control the center of the cage, stalking his opponent while throwing vicious power strikes. If “Lightning” senses Okami is hurt, he will swarm with punches. Lombard scored three knockdowns against Palahares and closed the bout with a devastating series of left and right hooks followed by heavy standing-to-ground punches.

Despite high-profile knockout losses to Boetsch and 185-pound kingpin Anderson Silva, Okami is not nearly as easy to hit as Palhares. He is adept at punching his way into the clinch with his jab and then forcing takedowns from there. From top position, Okami constantly works to pass guard, and while he is not likely to finish fights with his offense from above, he remains diligent with his ground-and-pound.

The fight will be won based on who can impose his will in tie-ups. Okami will not allow Lombard to find a comfortable striking range, as he will apply constant pressure against the Cuban judoka. Both men have judo backgrounds, so it will be interesting to see who will be able to get the fight to the floor with his array of throws and trips.

Okami is big middleweight, but Lombard’s tremendous upper body strength and base will allow him to fend off his foe’s advances, at least temporarily. Lombard’s cardio will be tested by constantly defending clinches, and takedowns should come easier for Okami in the bout’s later stages.

The Pick: Okami makes this ugly, frustrating Lombard and grinding out a decision victory.

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