Preview: UFC 184 ‘Rousey vs. Zingano’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Tony Ferguson (17-3, 7-1 UFC) vs. Gleison Tibau (33-10, 16-8 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Venerable warhorse Tibau steps up on short notice to replace the injured Yancy Medeiros against rising lightweight and “The Ultimate Fighter 13” winner Ferguson. Tibau has won three straight since being knocked out by Michael Johnson at UFC 168, most recently taking a decision from Norman Parke a little more than a month ago. Ferguson is also working on a quick turnaround, having choked out Abel Trujillo at UFC 181 in December. He is working on a four-fight winning streak of his own.

Ferguson is a fantastic athlete. On their own, each of his skill sets is outstanding, but he sometimes struggles to move fluidly between them. Although he is a bit hittable early, Ferguson can really crack with his low kicks and potent punching combinations. Once he finds his rhythm and range, he takes increasingly clean angles, puts together more volume, is difficult to hit and moves his head well.

A former Division II national champion wrestler, Ferguson is hard to take down. While he rarely tries for takedowns of his own, he excels as a counter wrestler and on the mat, and his front headlock series of snapdowns, brabo chokes, anacondas and guillotines is particularly nasty. The problem is that while Ferguson does each of these things well, they do not really blend together. He tends to shift into either striking mode or grappling mode without thinking of how to connect the two.

We all know what Tibau will try to do. He knows, his opponent knows and the viewers at home know; the question is whether the fighter standing across the cage from him will be able to stop it. Tibau is first and foremost an enormous, powerfully built wrestler with great timing, drive and finishes on his chained double- and single-leg takedowns. Once he gets on top, Tibau employs a suffocating control game with an unshakeable base, solid passes and the occasional powerful strike. Conversely, he is nearly impossible to take down, and he can grind away just as effectively in the clinch. Tibau’s southpaw striking game does not get enough credit these days: He moves well at range, finds nice angles and packs real power in his favored straight left-right hook combination, which he throws early and often along with a potent left kick to the legs and body.

THE PICK: This is a tough fight to call given Tibau’s brief turnaround between fights and the short-notice change from Medeiros to the enormous Brazilian. The salient question here is whether Ferguson can stuff Tibau’s takedowns and avoid trapping himself on the bottom hunting for low-percentage submissions. I think he can do the former, though the latter is a question of fight IQ and is harder to answer. If so, it should be Ferguson’s fight to lose, as he holds a massive advantage in skill and diversity at range. The pick is Ferguson by decision, with the possibility of a knockout.

Last Fights » The Prelims