Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

Women’s Bantamweights

Amanda Nunes (11-4) vs Valentina Shevchenko (12-1)

THE MATCHUP: Shevchenko was the first woman to join the UFC’s bantamweight division in over a year when she debuted on eight days’ notice against Sarah Kaufman. Her arrival coincided neatly with Holly Holm’s defeat of Ronda Rousey just a month before. Now she faces Nunes, who staked her claim for a title shot by obliterating former title challenger Sara McMann in a single round. The women’s bantamweight division is suddenly much more interesting.

A decorated kickboxer -- her win over current UFC strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk has been oft mentioned -- Shevchenko has a similar style to that of Holm. She likes to fight from long range, her southpaw stance allowing her to more easily maintain that long distance. Like Holm, Shevchenko likes to counter her opponents coming in, though her weapon of choice is the right hook rather than the more typical straight left.

Also like Holm, Shevchenko’s background gives her something of a mental advantage. Holm was well known for her boxing career, and many of her opponents were surprised to discover her dangerous kicking game. In the same way, women who expect Shevchenko to employ a striking approach are often caught off guard by her aggressive clinch game. Shevchenko uses the clinch to counter her opponents’ forward movement, and her willingness to grapple was essential to her victory over Kaufman.

Nunes is likely one of the few women in this division who could compete with Shevchenko in a straight-up kickboxing bout. She is easily one of the most powerful punchers in the class, having finished all but two of her 11 wins by knockout or technical knockout; she also set up one of her two submissions with a knockdown. Nunes moves lightly on her feet, varies constantly between lead rights, leg kicks and other strikes and does tremendous damage from top position.

Nunes’ biggest problem has always been her stamina. Of the five fights in which Nunes went past the first round, she lost three. She has never won a decision, nor finished a fight in the third round. In her bout with Cat Zingano, Nunes battered “Alpha” on the ground, only to lose momentum with a minute remaining in the first round. She never regained it.

THE ODDS: Nunes (-120), Shevchenko (+100)

THE PICK: This fight stands to be very entertaining for about the first round and a half. Nunes is a venomous puncher with the know-how to land her strikes, even against an experienced kickboxer such as Shevchenko. Eventually, however, it will be Shevchenko’s consistent, reliable approach that wins out. Shevchenko is a sound defensive fighter and very composed under pressure. She should be able to clinch Nunes to slow her down if things go sour early, and she will pick her apart as the fight wears on and Nunes loses steam. The pick is Shevchenko by unanimous decision.

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