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Bantamweights

Merab Dvalishvili (11-4) vs. John Dodson (21-11)

ODDS: Dvalishvili (-185), Dodson (+160)

Dodson is slowing down, but his last fight proved there is still some juice left in the tank for “The Magician.” Dodson’s boom-or-bust style has always been frustrating. He has an ability for an explosive knockout that is rare in men his size, but he just as often spends time waiting for the perfect opportunity. However, looking back, he had an underrated campaign at flyweight. Like nearly everyone else, Dodson could not get past Demetrious Johnson, but that was about the only negative for his run at 125 pounds, as none of his other opponents managed to test him. After his second failed attempt at unseating Johnson, Dodson decided to ply his trade up at 135 pounds, and it has been a solid if uninspiring exercise. After blasting Manny Gamburyan for a 47-second win, Dodson went on a run of six straight decisions that, save for a win over Pedro Munhoz, were more notable for who he lost to than who he beat. For example, Marlon Moraes and Petr Yan both managed to walk away with wins, but neither looked overwhelmingly good thanks to Dodson’s combination of speed and durability. Dodson’s day as a true contender are surely behind him, but it was nice to see him score his first finish in years with a third-round stoppage of Nathaniel Wood, both in terms of what it means for his career and for providing some suspense that Dodson can still spark an opponent on the right night. With that victory in his pocket, Dodson is back on gatekeeper duty once again, this time against Dvalishvili.

Dvalishvili earned his UFC contract with a 15-second victory via spinning backfist, which was a bit of false advertisement. While it does signify Dvalishvili’s eternally aggressive approach, the Georgian is not much of a finisher and typically has not been a striker. A case could be made that “The Machine” should be undefeated in his six-fight UFC career, but he managed to lose his first two bouts. The first was a traditional narrow split decision against Frankie Saenz, but the second was an odd affair that saw Dvalishvili survive a guillotine choke against Ricky Simon, only to be deemed unable to respond once the final horn sounded. Thankfully, Dvalishvili has been able to right the boat in the years since, mostly on the back of his relentless wrestling approach. To his credit, Dvalishvili does seem to be working to become a more effective striker—what was once a wild and unstructured approach now seems to have a bit of process—but there are no bones about the centerpiece of Dvalishvili’s skill set, and it is often a pleasure to watch him continually outlast his opponents. He has certainly proven himself worthy of this shot against Dodson, and it will be interesting to see exactly what he does with it.

This could be weird. There is a chance that Dvalishvili just works his usual magic and controls this entire fight with his wrestling, but that has never proven particularly successful against Dodson, who has always at least been hard to control. While Dvalishvili has racked up some gaudy takedown totals over the course of his fights, he is also not much of a control artist. As an example, he may have landed 11 takedowns against Saenz, but he still lost the decision just because of how little he did with them. Dvalishvili is not that fighter anymore, as he has done a better job of inflicting damage when the opportunity presents itself, but if this is going to come down to who hits the harder shots, that is going to be a losing battle against Dodson. Dvalishvili may put up the numbers in terms of takedowns and control time, but he is not much of a defensive wizard, and Dodson should be able to hit enough hard and clean shots to win this one, if not end it. It may be ugly, but the pick is Dodson via decision.

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