Preview: UFC 256 Main Card

Heavyweights

#14 HW | Ciryl Gane (6-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. #7 HW | Junior dos Santos (21-8, 15-7 UFC)

ODDS: Gane (-420), dos Santos (+335)

The UFC is certainly rushing Gane up the heavyweight ladder here, but he is a talented enough prospect that it just might work. A convert from a promising kickboxing career, the Frenchman gained notice immediately upon entering the Canadian scene thanks to his combination of athleticism and fluidity for a man his size. It took “Bon Gamin” all of three pro fights before he got the UFC call, which was frankly the right move. Despite his inexperience, Gane had already proven everything he was going to on the regional circuit. Upon making it to the Octagon, Gane quickly racked up the wins, fighting three times in a shade over four months. While he was facing competition that either could not match him technically or athletically, he managed to check off a number of boxes in his victories, showing a strong gas tank and even some impressive submission skills given his inexperience and background. However, 2020 has been a struggle. Due to injuries from both Gane and his slated opponents, he has not had a fight make it to the cage for the entire calendar year. That has not stopped the UFC from marching him forward. While scheduled opponents like Sergei Pavlovich and Shamil Abdurakhimov felt like more of a proper next step, Gane is being thrown right into the mix against a former heavyweight champion in dos Santos.

Somehow still just 36 years old, dos Santos is starting his slide down the ranks, even if he should be able to hold his own at a solid level for the next few years. At his peak, dos Santos got by on his boxing, pure and simple, and while his individual techniques may not have always been the prettiest, his combination of speed, length and diversity was more than enough for him to pick apart and knock out more athletically or technically limited opponents. The rough losses “Cigano” suffered to Cain Velasquez to cap off their heavyweight title trilogy seemed to portend an early end to dos Santos’ career, but the Brazilian bounced back after a middling stretch to prove that he was still a top-tier heavyweight. The former champ has not really changed his approach so much as bolted new techniques onto his existing game, but a string of wins over Blagoy Ivanov, Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis showed that he can still pick apart a plodding bruiser, even if he will get tagged hard once or twice in the process. Unfortunately, things have gone downhill since the Lewis win, as Francis Ngannou, Curtis Blaydes and Jairzinho Rozenstruik proved effective enough hitters that they managed to close the show on a stunned dos Santos. The Rozenstruik loss was particularly deflating, given that dos Santos was doing quite well until his counterpart sprang into action. This is the latest step down the ladder for dos Santos, and it is an interesting one, as Gane is not the usual plodder with which he often gets matched.

There is certainly a chance that dos Santos wins. Despite his striking background, Gane is not a particularly reliable one-shot knockout artist, and his approach does not have much built-in respect for what his opponent is throwing back. Of course, none of Gane’s opponents thus far have presented enough of a threat for the Frenchman to worry much about their offense, but it is easy to imagine a scenario where his flowing striking is interrupted by an awkward dos Santos uppercut. Even so, dos Santos has none of his usual advantages, as Gane is a faster and more fluid striker with both a reach advantage and a better gas tank. So, unless dos Santos suddenly develops a wrestling game that he has been waiting for over a decade to spring onto his opponents, this appears to be a tough ask. Like a lot of heavyweight fights, a win from the underdog—in this case dos Santos—would not be a surprise, but there is no reason on paper to pick him. The pick is Gane via second-round stoppage.

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