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Light Heavyweights

#13 LHW | Jimmy Crute (12-1, 4-1 UFC) vs. #6 LHW | Anthony Smith (34-16, 9-6 UFC)

ODDS: Crute (-190), Smith (+165)

Even with the benefit of hindsight, Smith’s rise through the light heavyweight ranks remains a bit of a surprise. In fact, Smith’s whole second act in the UFC came as a bit of a shock. Re-signed by the promotion as a late replacement in 2016, Smith nailed down his first UFC win over Leonardo Guimaraes in his return, but a subsequent loss to Cezar Ferreira seemed to slot him into a gatekeeper role. Instead, Smith suddenly made a name for himself as a comeback artist, authoring late finishes against Elvis Mutapcic, Andrew Sanchez and Hector Lombard to become a middleweight concern. Smith kicked off 2018 with a loss to Thiago Santos that halted his momentum, so he instead set his sights on a move to 205 pounds. Three fights and nine months later, Smith wound up as Jon Jones’ next title challenger. Late-career versions of Rashad Evans and Mauricio Rua were quickly dispatched, and with another comeback win over Volkan Oezdemir, Smith was suddenly the next man in line for the greatest light heavyweight of all-time. Smith did not do much against Jones, and though he was able to rebound with a win—once again in comeback fashion—against Alexander Gustafsson, a rough 2020 campaign made it seem like it would be Smith’s last hurrah. Smith’s first post-pandemic bout against Glover Teixeira was a bleak example of what the sport could be inside of an empty arena. Teixeira took over the fight and laid such a beating on Smith that he was heard talking about his teeth falling out in between rounds. A follow-up effort against Aleksandar Rakic did not go particularly well. It was thankfully much less violent, but the bout still saw Smith mostly get outwrestled for three rounds. Smith has thankfully righted the ship after an impressively quick submission over Devin Clark, and still somehow just 32 years old, “Lionheart” may yet have another run in him. First, he will have to turn back one of the division’s top prospects in Crute.

Crute looked like a product of some promotional hype heading into his fight on Dana White’s Contender Series. The Australian’s spot on the show was sponsored by one of the UFC’s promotional partners, and he was matched with an opponent who was coming off a loss to Matt Hamill in 2018. Thus far, all “The Brute” has done is prove himself as a prospect and overachieve. Crute obviously got the win and earned his contract on the Contender Series, and he impressively avoided defeat against two tricky veteran tests in Paul Craig and Sam Alvey. Misha Cirkunov’s grappling acumen proved to be too much for Crute, but 2020 saw Crute rebound with two quick wins over fellow prospects Michal Oleksiejczuk and Modestas Bukauskas. Crute may not be the top prospect in all of the UFC as some have proclaimed him, but there does figure to be title contention in his future, if only because of his age. Crute can hold his own at a solid level everywhere, has enough aggression to press his advantages and still has enough youth and time to get a whole lot better. That is a rare combination at light heavyweight, and he could find himself getting elite tests sooner than expected with a win against Smith.

For all his success, it does feel like Smith’s wins are mostly a result of his opponents’ weaknesses and less about himself. It has been quite impressive that he has been able to close the show when faced with tired opponents, but he does need to rely on them getting tired to begin with. That might be trouble against Crute, who has not shown many signs of flagging despite sometimes fighting at a breakneck pace. There should be a chance for Smith to catch Crute cleanly, as he rushes forward to get things going, but the Australian has gotten much smarter in recent fights about going to his wrestling and should be able to keep control—or at the very least pour on a lot of offense before Smith gets back up. A finish either way would not be a surprise, but the pick is Crute via decision.

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