Preview: UFC Fight Night 158 ‘Cowboy vs. Gaethje’

Light Heavyweights

Misha Cirkunov (14-5) vs. Jim Crute (10-0)

ODDS: Crute (-115), Cirkunov (-105)

Light heavyweight is a thin enough division that it is difficult to count out anyone, but the situation has begun to look dire for Cirkunov. A Latvian immigrant, Cirkunov looked like the next great prospect out of his adopted home of Canada, owing to his strong background in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and judo. When Cirkunov can get on top of his opponent, things are truly terrifying. Four of his five UFC wins have come via submission, including a neck crank where he audibly cracked Alex Nicholson’s jaw. Unfortunately for Cirkunov, every fight starts on the feet. Cirkunov is not even a particularly bad striker, but he is obviously not a native one, as he seems a bit wooden in his technique. That would not be particularly troublesome, except that Cirkunov does not handle getting hit well at all. When Cirkunov loses, it is usually quick and brutal, as Volkan Oezdemir and Johnny Walker managed to put out his lights in about half a minute each. Throw in a loss where Glover Teixeira outclassed him on the mat, and Cirkunov’s suddenly gone from prized prospect to loser of three of his last four. While Cirkunov still has some prospect shine, it says something that he is obviously in the gatekeeper role against a rising Australian talent in Crute.

For as much as Cirkunov needs this win, this is also a particularly important fight for Crute, who has overachieved every time out. Crute’s entry into the UFC seemed particularly staged. He got a shot on Dana White’s Contender Series through a UFC sponsor deal, and he was matched with an opponent who was coming off a loss to Matt Hamill of all people. No matter how Crute got into the UFC, he has taken advantage of the opportunity and looked good in his two UFC appearances to date. Paul Craig is a tricky opponent for a raw prospect, and Crute did well to stay patient and outwork the Scot on his way to a late finish. It was a similar story his next time out, as Crute faced another tricky opponent in Sam Alvey and managed to stay out of trouble before scoring a quick knockout. At just 23 years old, those wins alone are enough to make Crute a prospect to watch, and this fight should help calibrate just how soon it will be before “The Brute” can make a run towards title contention.

Crute has done well to show his well-roundedness, but this feels like too big of a step up, at least for now. Craig and Alvey are weird opponents, so it says a lot that Crute managed to approach each fight smartly and come out with a win, but Cirkunov is the first opponent who could be classified as another actual good, well-rounded fighter. While Cirkunov’s had his chin issues, both Oezdemir and Walker are some combination of aggressive and physically explosive, neither of which describe Crute, who looks like he will develop into more of a gritty all-rounder. Unless Crute hits Cirkunov with a perfect shot, it is difficult to see where the Australian has an advantage, particularly once his counterpart decides to take things to the mat. There is a world of difference between Cirkunov and Craig. Crute is still a prospect with a bright future, but this sure looks like his first loss. The pick is for Cirkunov to handle things rather easily and earn a second-round submission.

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