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Textbook @BeneilDariush gets the takedown, puts his hooks in and sinks in the RNC! #UFCSingapore pic.twitter.com/FHCxrJNHHr

— UFC (@ufc) October 26, 2019

Lightweights

Beneil Dariush (18-4-1) vs. Scott Holtzman (14-3)

ODDS: Dariush (-160), Holtzman (+140)

It was not that long ago that Dariush’s UFC career felt surprisingly tenuous, but he has quietly rebounded with a four-fight winning streak. Dariush quickly shot up the lightweight ranks upon hitting the UFC and looked like a future contender. His background as a decorated submission artist got all the headlines, but he also built out a pressure striking game that seemingly got more effective with each showing. However, an early-career loss to Ramsey Nijem portended some future issues for Dariush: If an opponent was just as willing as Dariush to commit to pressure, the California native quickly became uncomfortable and could even get knocked out. Edson Barboza closed the show on Dariush in spectacular fashion with a flying knee, but it was a loss shortly thereafter to a then-unknown Alexander Hernandez that was a huge cause for concern. Hernandez simply charged forward and put out Dariush’s lights in just 42 seconds. Dariush quietly rebounded with a few wins that saw him go back to relying on his grappling chops, and a March victory over Drakkar Klose could be taken as a sign of progress. Klose rocked him, which may not be the best sign, but Dariush finally responded well by biting down on his mouthpiece and returning fire, ending his counterpart’s night with a brutal knockout of his own. Dariush’s championship upside has dulled a bit over the years, but there is still a chance for him to do something interesting in the lightweight division. He needs to beat Holtzman first.

Holtzman is a fascinating prospect in his own right. There is a lot to like about him. He has some natural charisma and strong athleticism, the latter owing to his history as a professional hockey player. However, that hockey career meant that Holtzman got a late start when it comes to mixed martial arts, so he has basically been learning on the job. Losses early in his UFC career to Drew Dober and Josh Emmett certainly look better in retrospect, but each setback has felt particularly damaging for “Hot Sauce,” if only because he has a shortened timeline with which to work. Holtzman has done well to piece things together, as he has won five of his last six fights. His 2018 victory over Alan Patrick Silva Alves was a shockingly complete performance, and Holtzman did well to get by eternal tough test Jim Miller in his last fight in February. Closing in on 37 years old, there is still the question of exactly how far Holtzman can take this until he hits the point of diminishing returns, but things look to be on the upswing for now.

Holtzman certainly has a chance in this one. Dariush seemingly gets buzzed in every fight that goes any length of time, and Holtzman has the power to hit him with a knockout shot. However, this looks like a fight where Holtzman’s late start in the sport is going to rear its ugly head. He has put together a well-rounded game but just does not have the depth in any one area to hang with a particularly dangerous specialist. When it comes to wrestling and grappling, Dariush is that level of specialist. It may take a while due to Holtzman’s physical strength, but if Dariush can turn this into a grind, it feels like a matter of time before he can get this to the mat and find some sort of a finish. The pick is Dariush via first-round submission.

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