Lightweights
NR | Marc Diakiese (14-4, 5-4 UFC) vs. NR | Rafael Alves (19-10, 0-1 UFC)ODDS: Diakiese (-180), Alves (+158)
Still just 28 years old, there is still time for Diakiese to continue figuring things out. Diakiese came into the UFC with a considerable amount of hype, as “Bonecrusher” established himself as both a knockout threat and one of the best fighters on the British scene. His first few bouts inside the Octagon were inconsistent affairs, with Diakiese relying on his natural athleticism to see him through, but he kept winning until he hit a clear wall. All of Diakiese’s losses during a three-fight skid have aged particularly well—Drakkar Klose, Dan Hooker and Nasrat Haqparast have all gone on to find success—and to his credit, he seemed to be developing some technical depth against a sneakily tough level of opposition, even if he constantly found himself on the losing end. That luck finally corrected itself in 2019, which saw Diakiese rebound and take better form against Joseph Duffy and Lando Vannata. However, 2020 saw Diakiese suffer a loss to Rafael Fiziev that felt a bit familiar; once again, Diakiese is obviously improving but struggled to keep up with deeper opponents who have used him as a breakout win. Even if he has not been the prodigy some expected, Diakiese is still a rock-solid fighter with youth and potential on his side, and he will look to bounce back in this assignment. Alves’ initial UFC debut was scrapped due to the largest weight miss in promotional history, but “The Turn” acquitted himself well in his actual debut against Damir Ismagulov, putting in some moments of offense against an underrated opponent against whom it is difficult to look good. Bursts of offense are essentially the name of the game for the Brazilian, a ball of muscle who relies on explosive moments to find a finish. Alves’ submission game and willingness to jump on something is a legitimate worry for Diakiese—he lost to Hooker via third-round guillotine choke—but the Brit has proven himself quite durable and much more consistent, so he should be able to keep a pace and take over by the end of 15 minutes. The pick is Diakiese via third-round stoppage.
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