Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Edgar vs. Swanson’

---

FLYWEIGHTS

Joseph Benavidez (20-4, 7-2 UFC) vs. Dustin Ortiz (14-3, 3-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The rising Ortiz gets a tough draw in former bantamweight and flyweight challenger Benavidez. The Team Alpha Male product got back on track with a vicious guillotine over Tim Elliott in April, while Ortiz has won two in a row, both by contentious split decision.

Benavidez has evolved into a much more dangerous striker than he was during his first few bouts in the UFC.

Although he has always had pop in his hands, he has become much more effective with his combinations, a product of his improved timing and command of angles and range. His kicks are likewise much better, which has something to do with him spending more time in the southpaw stance. He is still a bit hittable, however, especially on the counter, due to his inconsistent head movement and tendency to drop his hands. Although he uses them less now, Benavidez still owns a full arsenal of takedowns, including trips, singles and doubles. His defensive wrestling has occasionally been a problem, as his tendency to plant his feet and throw bombs allows his opponents to get in on his hips. That is not necessarily a problem for Benavidez, however, as he is an outstanding scrambler -- his half-guard sweeps and get-ups are fantastic -- and excels in transitions. His guillotine choke is lethal, and if he finds top position, his ground strikes are devastating.

Ortiz is essentially an athletic pressure fighter who emphasizes the clinch and wrestling with the goal of creating transitions and scrambles on the ground. He possesses a diverse arsenal of takedowns, including trips, hip tosses, singles and doubles, all of which he chains together relentlessly in the effort to get the fight to the ground. His finishes for his takedowns are not particularly authoritative, his control from top position is lacking and he does not have much of a submission game, but he is absolutely outstanding at creating the kinds of transitions that usually allow him to come out on top. His striking has improved and consists mainly of punches as he attempts to move forward into the clinch or to disguise his level changes. Ortiz’s style is exhausting, and few opponents can operate at his pace for all three rounds.

BETTING ODDS: Benavidez (-375), Ortiz (+310)

THE PICK: This matchup favors Benavidez. Ortiz’s style plays perfectly into things at which he excels, namely transitions on the ground. Aside from Dominick Cruz and Demetrious Johnson, two of the fastest and most skilled scramblers in the history of MMA, nobody has been able to hang in the transitions with Benavidez, and I doubt Ortiz falls into that category. Benavidez is also excellent at landing counter combinations on aggressive opponents. Ortiz will back the Team Alpha Male representative against the fence and create scrambles, but I expect Benavidez to lock up his signature guillotine in the first or second round for the submission victory.

Next Fight » Matt Wiman vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg