Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Gonzaga vs. Cro Cop 2’

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WELTERWEIGHTS

Seth Baczynski (19-12, 5-5 UFC) vs. Leon Edwards (8-2, 0-1 UFC): Polish-American Baczynski gets one more chance in the UFC coming off a brutal 1-4 run against; he meets Edwards, who dropped his short-notice debut to Claudio Henrique da Silva in November. Baczynski is a high-output striker who uses his 6-foot-4 height to good effect, working behind a long 1-2, front kick and constant movement, but he is hittable and not exceptionally durable. Edwards is a talented southpaw counterpuncher with real power in his hands and solid takedown defense, but he could stand to throw more volume. The two likely scenarios here involve Baczynski outworking Edwards for a decision or the Polish-American running himself into a counter left from Edwards, and the latter seems more likely. The pick is Edwards by knockout late in the first round.

WELTERWEIGHTS

Mickael Lebout (13-3-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Sergio Moraes (8-2, 2-1 UFC): Moraes returns to action after 20 months on the sidelines due to various injuries and draws debuting Frenchman Lebout. Moraes lost to Cezar Ferreira at UFC 147 but defeated Renee Forte and Neil Magny prior to his injuries. He is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace and his striking repertoire is nothing to write home about, but he is a surprisingly good wrestler in addition to his legitimately world-class and dangerous skills on the mat. Lebout is a solid if hittable combination striker who integrates his wrestling nicely, and he does good work on the mat with submissions and control. I do not think Lebout can keep this a pure kickboxing bout, and if it ends up on the ground, he is in serious trouble. The pick is Moraes by submission in the first round.

MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Bartosz Fabinski (11-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Garreth McLellan (12-2, 0-0 UFC): Two UFC debutantes meet in a potentially interesting scrap. McLellan is a native of South Africa and enters the UFC on a six-fight winning streak against solid competition, while the Pole, Fabinski, is on a four-fight streak of his own. McLellan has great strength and physicality, which he mostly utilizes through his clinch-based takedown game and dangerous work from top position. Fabinski is an aggressive wrestle-grappler type with decent shot takedowns and good strikes from top position. The Pole has beaten better competition, and I think his game will translate more smoothly. The pick is Fabinski by decision.

HEAVYWEIGHTS

Daniel Omielanczuk (16-4-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Anthony Hamilton (13-4, 1-2 UFC): Two heavyweights meet with their spots in the UFC on the line. Hamilton has sandwiched losses to Todd Duffee and Alexey Oleinik around a win over Ruan Potts, while Omielanczuk won his UFC debut against Nandor Guelmino but dropped his return engagement against Jared Rosholt. Poland’s Omielanczuk is a solid striker, with a nice arsenal of punch-kick combinations from his southpaw stance and a decent clinch game to back it up. Hamilton can do a bit of everything but lacks power and does not stand out anywhere. I think Omielanczuk’s more diverse and powerful striking will be the difference, so the pick is the Pole by knockout in the second round.

WOMEN’S STRAWWEIGHTS

Izabela Badurek (5-2, 0-0 UFC) vs. Aleksandra Albu (1-0, 0-0 UFC): Two debuting strawweights meet in an interesting matchup of eastern European fighters. Badurek, a Pole, is big and physical but not terribly athletic or fast, and her striking game is limited to a winging overhand and the willingness to bite down and throw bombs. She has nice clinch takedowns and good submissions from the top, though. Albu is all about potential and upside. A ridiculous athlete with a strong karate base, the Russian throws lightning-fast punches and kicks and knows enough elsewhere to stay out of trouble. While it would not be surprising if Badurek worked takedowns and top control, I think Albu’s speed and striking acumen will be too much for her. The pick is the Russian by decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Marcin Bandel (13-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Steven Ray (16-5, 0-0 UFC): Poland’s Bandel returns to the Octagon following his debut loss to Mairbek Taisumov in October and draws Scotsman Ray, who comes in on extremely short notice. Bandel is an aggressive grappler who road a streak of 12 consecutive submission victories into his UFC debut, but he lacks much of a striking game and his wrestling is average at best. Ray can fight anywhere, with a nice southpaw striking arsenal, good wrestling and solid chops on the mat, but he has a tendency to get himself in trouble in extended grappling exchanges. If Ray can keep this standing, he should win handily, and I think he will. The pick is Ray by unanimous decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Taylor Lapilus (8-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Rocky Lee (3-0, 0-0 UFC): UFC debutantes Lapilus and Lee meet in a matchup of raw featherweights. Lee reached “The Ultimate Fighter: China” semifinals, while the youthful Lapilus has competed entirely in his native France under modified rules that disallow some kinds of ground strikes. The Frenchman is a native of MMA with well-rounded skills. He counters nicely on the feet and has a nice arsenal of sweeps from his back, but he is not a great athlete and his takedown defense is suspect. Lee is aggressive, shifts nicely between striking and wrestling and does good work from the top, but his defense in all facets is subpar. This could be an ugly fight if both fighters have not made substantial improvements. I lean slightly toward Lapilus. The pick is the Frenchman by unanimous decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Yaotzin Meza (20-9, 1-2 UFC) vs. Damian Stasiak (8-2, 0-0 UFC): A late-notice bout between a pair of featherweights serves as the curtain-jerker. Meza is desperately trying to hang on to his job after dropping his last fight to Sergio Pettis, and he draws intriguing Polish prospect Stasiak. Meza can do a bit of everything, though nothing particularly well, and he can be beaten in every phase. Stasiak’s skills are an interesting mixture of karate on the feet, good clinch work and wrestling and venomous submissions on the mat; and he is a plus athlete. The pick is Stasiak by submission in the second round.

Follow Sherdog.com preview expert Patrick Wyman on Twitter.

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