Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Henderson vs. Thatch’

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LIGHTWEIGHTS

Michel Richard Cunha dos Prazeres (18-1, 2-1 UFC) vs. Kevin Lee (9-1, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Talented prospect Lee gets a stiff test on his way up the ladder against the experienced Prazeres. Lee dropped his short-notice debut against Al Iaquinta at UFC 169 but has rebounded to take decisions from Jesse Ronson and Jon Tuck. Prazeres likewise dropped his debut but has beaten the aforementioned Ronson and Mairbek Taisumov since dropping to 155 pounds.

Lee gave up a promising career as a Division II wrestler to focus full-time on MMA and has totally revamped his game since moving from Detroit to Las Vegas to work with Xtreme Couture. While wrestling remains his base and he possesses an explosive shot and authoritative finishes to his preferred singles and doubles, he has grown into a reasonably technical striker and solid grappler. On the feet, Lee strings together nice punch-kick combinations, works behind a crisp jab and mixes up his shots to the head and body. In top position, he shows excellent posture and a heavy base that enables him to throw a steady stream of hard ground strikes, and he has a knack for making his way to his opponent’s back. If Lee fails on his takedown attempts and winds up in the clinch, he unloads a punishing series of knees, short uppercuts and elbows. He is a plus athlete and works at an above-average pace, and he has shown substantial improvement from fight to fight.

Prazeres is essentially a smaller and less-proven Gleison Tibau. Like Tibau, Prazeres is surprisingly quick and can crack when he lets his hands go in combinations of looping punches. His preferred game, however, consists of tying up with his opponent and working body-lock throws and trips. He has good timing and tends to work his clinch entries as counters to his opponent’s strikes. Once he gains top position, Prazeres is almost impossible to shake off, as his squat stature gives him a boulder-like base. He passes with aplomb, and while he is not especially dangerous, he excels at grinding.

BETTING ODDS: Lee (-170), Prazeres (+150)

THE PICK: This is an interesting matchup. The American is and should be the favorite, but Prazeres’ takedown acumen is no joke, even for a wrestler as athletic and skilled as Lee. It would not be surprising if the Brazilian were able to work the smaller Lee to the mat and hold him there, but in the more likely scenario, Lee stuffs Prazeres’ clinch entries, puts volume on him at range and even snags a takedown or two of his own. Lee by decision is the pick.

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