Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Lineker vs. Dodson’

Featherweights

Hacran Dias (23-4-1) vs. Andre Fili (15-4): If you look only at his technique, Dias looks like a Nova Uniao fighter. He angles away from takedowns and scrambles expertly once taken down; he throws hard, straight punches; and he has a powerful arsenal of kicks, specializing in the same low kicks as teammates Jose Aldo and Renan Barao. In practice, however, Dias has consistently struggled to break through as an elite featherweight. For whatever reason, he struggles to throw volume and, as a result, struggles to win rounds. Fili has the opposite problem. When he gets himself in trouble, it is because he attacks indiscriminately, chasing his opponents into whatever phase they choose. To his credit, “Touchy” Fili is well-rounded and dangerous at just about every range and in every phase of combat. Fili’s willingness to press the action and throw volume is a sizeable advantage over Dias, who has gone to a decision in every one of his six UFC bouts. Without a little more venom on his shots or some meaner killer instinct, Dias will struggle to make his reticent style work against a more aggressive opponent. Fili by unanimous decision is the pick.

Light Heavyweights

Luis Henrique da Silva (11-0) vs. Joachim Christensen (13-3): Da Silva, a.k.a. “Frankenstein,” is a brawler but not a sloppy fighter. In this case, “brawler” simply means that the Brazilian slugger is willing to put himself at risk if it means getting a chance to deliver punishment -- and deliver it he does. Every one of da Silva’s 11 wins has come by knockout or technical knockout. The most recent of these was accomplished on the back of a relentless salvo of body shots, and though da Silva did pay the price for his come-forward style, suffering a knockdown in the second round, his attritive attack kept his opponent from finding the finish and allowed him to force the stoppage mere moments later. His opponent, Christensen, is not averse to a brawl, but he is more of a grinder when he has his way. Christensen is well-rounded, with some meat-and-potatoes boxing and a clinch-based wrestling game. The clinch is where da Silva made hay against Jonathan Wilson, however, so Christensen will find himself in a tough spot if he cannot consistently take down the Brazilian. Christensen is 37 years old, and while the bigger fighters tend to last longer than their diminutive counterparts, we have more reason to expect improvement out of the 27-year-old “Frankenstein.” The pick is da Silva by second-round TKO.

Heavyweights

Shamil Abdurakhimov (16-3) vs. Walt Harris (8-4): Cody East drops his UFC debut to Harris and gets a more winnable fight against a fellow prospect. Harris notches his first UFC win and suddenly finds himself in the mix with a dangerous veteran. Life is cruel. Harris is no walkover. “The Big Ticket” is built like Alistair Overeem, and he possesses much the same power and speed from his southpaw stance, complemented by light footwork and a diverse array of strikes. He has only been fighting for five years, however, and in that time, he has lost just about every step up in competition. Abdurakhimov is less likely than other veteran heavyweights to knock Harris senseless in the first round, but he certainly fights like a crafty veteran. Rather than bouncing on his toes constantly, Abdurakhimov’s movement is calculated and economical, and the short counterpunches he throws at incoming opponents are the icing on the cake. It would be good to see Harris get another win in the big leagues, and he is raw enough that sudden improvement is far from impossible. Abdurakhimov has the better resume, however, and the skills to back it up. The pick is Abdurakhimov by knockout in round three.

Welterweights

Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (15-5) vs. Keita Nakamura (32-7-2): At 32 years old and with 13 years of pro experience, Nakamura’s UFC run feels a little unlikely, especially considering the fact that the Japanese vet was winless in three prior bouts inside the Octagon. Yet since his UFC return, “K-Taro” has notched two wins and performed admirably in a decision loss to top prospect Tom Breese. In all that time, Nakamura has yet to look entirely comfortable on the feet, and that could be a problem against dos Santos. The Brazilian is a power puncher who loves to counter with combinations. On the other hand, Nakamura has only been knocked out once in 42 fights. Perhaps the more important statistic in this matchup is dos Santos’ takedown defense: He has stopped only 42 percent of takedowns in his UFC career so far and even ended up in a few bad spots on the ground. Nakamura may not win the striking battle, but he is game enough to win a few exchanges, whereas dos Santos will be in a world of trouble if Nakamura takes him down; the Japanese fighter has 17 submissions to his credit, and 15 of them are rear-naked chokes. The pick is Nakamura by first-round submission.

Middleweights

Tamdan McCrory (14-4) vs. Nate Marquardt (34-16-2): The last few years of Marquardt’s career do not inspire confidence. Prior to 2013, Marquardt’s record was a respectable 32-10-2, with only one loss by knockout -- and that was to Anderson Silva. In the last three years, however, he has picked up an additional six losses, with four of them knockouts. The two wins he has gained in that time, however, are powerful reminders that Marquardt, even this fragile, shopworn version of him, is a crafty and dangerous fighter. McCrory was knocked out in his last bout, by a fighter with only three other knockouts to his name. Still, there are many factors in his favor. He is eight years younger, with less than half the wear and tear; he is a powerful puncher who throws excellent combinations in middle range; and he is a deft submission grappler with an ugly but effective clinch wrestling game. If McCrory walks recklessly into the pocket as he did in his last fight, Marquardt is more than powerful, fast and accurate enough to wax him. The last one was the first knockout loss of McCrory’s career, however, and Marquardt has been losing momentum steadily for years now. No one should count out the former Pancrase champion, but the pick is McCrory by first-round TKO.

Light Heavyweights

Jonathan Wilson (7-1) vs. Ion Cutelaba (11-2): Both Wilson and Cutelaba were stopped in their last fights, but only Wilson has ever been knocked out. Cutelaba was hit a little too often by Misha Cirkunov, but he also took those shots remarkably well. He can deliver punishment of his own, too, with nine knockouts on his resume. Wilson is explosive in his own right, but he paid the price for his one-round record last time out, gassing badly after the first frame was up; Cutelaba, on the other hand, never slowed down against Cirkunov, despite taking 10 minutes of punishment leading up to his eventual submission defeat. Cutelaba’s durability and longevity should carry him here. Cutelaba by second-round TKO is the pick.

Heavyweights

Curtis Blaydes (5-1) vs. Cody East (12-2): Different traits matter more or less in different divisions. At heavyweight, there is nothing more singularly important than durability. Blaydes not only survived the power of Francis Ngannou in his UFC debut but did his utmost to continue fighting despite a state of almost total blindness; East, on the other hand, was knocked out in the first round. It would be a mistake to draw to grand a conclusion from those results. East is not only the more powerful puncher of these two but faster as well, particularly with his hands. He also has a not-insignificant experience advantage over Blaydes, who only began fighting professionally in May 2014. East also has a bevy of first-round finishes, but that is part of his problem: He has shown a tendency to gas in past fights, a drawback of his all-power, high-volume style. That approach also makes him quite hittable and vulnerable to reactive takedowns, something which Blaydes is well-equipped to use. Blaydes has spent his time since the Ngannou fight training with the Elevation Fight Team, which has quickly established itself as one of the best camps in MMA. Then again, East has Jackson-Wink MMA in his corner. It is not an easy fight to call, but if neither man can get the early finish and both men slow down, I favor the wrestler to take over down the stretch. The pick is Blaydes by third-round TKO.

Women’s Bantamweights

Kelly Faszholz (3-1) vs. Ketlen Vieira (6-0): Vieira and Faszholz are not dissimilar fighters. Both women utilize striking to set up their jiu-jitsu, and both prefer the trusty rear-naked choke on the floor. The pieces which comprise that game are where these women differ, however. Vieira enters the UFC with a shiny, undefeated record, but she faced no opponents of repute. Faszholz did much the same outside the UFC, but she proved her worth in an exciting, back-and-forth battle with gritty veteran Lauren Murphy in her short-notice UFC debut. Of the two, Faszholz is the cleaner, more powerful striker. She tends to throw clean, straight shots and sits down on every one of them, whereas Vieira is too willing to square up and trade reckless rights and lefts. Neither woman is a great wrestler, so they should be able to neutralize each another on the ground. The pick is Faszholz by unanimous decision.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.