Preview: UFC on Fox 16 ‘Dillashaw vs. Barao 2’

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Light Heavyweights

Gian Villante (13-5, 3-2 UFC) vs. Tom Lawlor (9-5, 5-4 UFC): “Filthy” Lawlor returns from an absence of more than two years, moves up to 205 pounds and draws New York’s Villante in an intriguing light heavyweight bout. Lawlor last defeated Michael Kuiper in April 2013, while Villante has now strung together a two-fight winning streak, with his most recent victory coming over “The Ultimate Fighter 19” winner Corey Anderson in April. Villante is a big, strong, durable wrestle-boxer with a nice repertoire of punch-kick combinations and powerful though poorly disguised takedowns. He is hittable, though, and lacks speed. It is difficult to know precisely how Lawlor will look after two years off, but he has always shown a grinding wrestling and clinch game up against the cage, powerful but limited boxing and some chokes in transition. The difference here should be the New Yorker’s takedown defense and volume striking. The pick is Villante by decision.

Lightweights

Jim Miller (24-6, 13-5 UFC) vs. Danny Castillo (17-8, 7-5 UFC): Two veteran lightweights battle for relevance in an increasingly stacked division, as Miller and Castillo meet in an excellent scrap. Miller has dropped consecutive fights to Beneil Dariush and Donald Cerrone, while Castillo’s two-fight losing streak consists of a knockout at the hands of Paul Felder and a contentious decision to Tony Ferguson. New Jersey’s Miller remains an aggressive grappler with decent takedowns, potent if limited southpaw striking on the feet and a consistent nose for submissions in transition. Castillo is more of a wrestle-boxer, and he packs some pop in his hands to go along with rugged double-legs and top control. I think Castillo should be able to stuff Miller’s takedowns, stay out of trouble on the mat and prove a bit crisper on the feet. The pick is Castillo by decision.

Welterweights

Kenny Robertson (15-3, 4-3 UFC) vs. Ben Saunders (16-6-2, 6-3 UFC): Robertson meets Saunders in a clash of mid-tier welterweights. “Killa B” has run off two wins since returning to the UFC, with Joe Riggs falling to a mid-fight injury in December, and Robertson has quietly emerged victorious in three straight fights. Robertson is an aggressive wrestle-grappler who punches his way into the clinch, chains takedowns together and then works relentlessly from the top. The rangy Saunders is aggressive and dangerous everywhere, with a steady diet of kicks at range, vicious knees and elbows in the clinch and a lethal guard game. If Robertson can get Saunders down, he should be able to work from the top, and I think he will. The pick is Robertson by decision.

Bantamweights

Bryan Caraway (19-7, 4-2 UFC) vs. Eddie Wineland (21-10-1, 3-4 UFC): Indiana’s Wineland takes on Washington’s Caraway in an excellent striker-versus-grappler matchup. Both fighters are looking to get back on the winning track after losses in their last outings, Wineland’s an enormous upset to Johnny Eduardo and Caraway’s a decision loss to Raphael Assuncao. Wineland is mostly a boxer, with a crisp jab and natural right straight that he throws early and often. He packs good power in his hands, and his defensive wrestling and grappling are usually good enough to keep him in his wheelhouse. Caraway is a durable, relentless and skilled wrestle-grappler. His entire game is predicated around chaining shot takedowns and trips, working to his opponent’s back when he tries to stand up and then sinking a rear-naked choke. I think Wineland’s movement, angles and counterpunching ability will make it hard for Caraway to get inside to work his takedowns, and in a striking matchup, the former World Extreme Cagefighting champion will eat him up. The pick is Wineland by decision.

Lightweights

Daron Cruickshank (16-6, 6-4 UFC) vs. James Krause (21-7, 2-3 UFC): Talented strikers Cruickshank and Krause meet in a potential barnburner. Both are on the cusp of a cut, with Cruickshank having recorded only one win in his last four fights and Krause on a two-fight losing streak. Cruickshank has an interesting mixture of skills, seamlessly blending an unorthodox kicking game with smooth boxing and a quick double-leg. His athleticism and quickness make that mixture all the more effective. Krause is huge for the division at 6-foot-2 and utilizes that length with a consistent jab and a steady diet of front and round kicks. Pace is a strong suit, but he is neither particularly powerful nor fast. Cruickshank is giving up a great deal of size, but his speed and ability to mix up strikes and takedowns should be the difference. The pick is Cruickshank by decision.

Lightweights

Ramsey Nijem (9-5, 5-4 UFC) vs. Andrew Holbrook (9-0, 0-0 UFC): “The Ultimate Fighter 13” runner-up Nijem draws the debuting Holbrook in what could be a fun fight. All of Holbrook’s fights have come in his home state of Indiana against competition that is no better than mediocre. Nijem had a two-fight winning streak snapped with a knockout loss to Carlos Diego Ferreira. Holbrook has an interesting mixture of skills, with an aggressive boxing game, nice knees in the clinch, decent takedowns and, most importantly, a serious nose for submissions on the mat. Nijem has never really put it all together, but he can strike a bit, wrestles well and controls on the mat. If Holbrook had a full camp or experience against better competition, I would lean his direction, but I think Nijem’s pace and wrestling game should be too much. The pick is Nijem by decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

Elizabeth Phillips (4-3, 0-2 UFC) vs. Jessamyn Duke (3-2, 0-2 UFC): Washington’s Phillips draws Ronda Rousey training partner and Four Horsewomen stablemate Duke in a rematch of a 2012 amateur bout that the latter won by submission. At 0-2 in the promotion, Duke and Phillips are fighting for their UFC lives here. Duke has some talent but remains raw skill-wise, with a decent striking arsenal, limited wrestling and opportunistic submissions. Phillips has great physicality and athleticism, but she, too, is raw and lacks much offensive output. I think Phillips is stronger, a better wrestler and can put hands on the extraordinarily hittable Duke. The pick is Phillips by knockout in the second round.

Welterweights

Zak Cummings (17-4, 2-1 UFC) vs. Dominique Steele (13-5, 0-0 UFC): Regional journeyman Steele steps up on short notice to replace Antonio Braga Neto against Cummings, who won a pair of fights before dropping his last outing against Gunnar Nelson. Steele is not a great athlete, but he is durable, game and willing to engage at range and in the clinch. Cummings is an enormous welterweight who puts that size to good use with strong wrestling and sneaky submissions on the mat. With Steele coming in on late notice and Cummings’ superior wrestle-grappling game, the pick is Cummings by decision.

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