Preview: UFC on Fox 21 ‘Maia vs. Condit’

Middleweights

Sam Alvey (27-8) vs Kevin Casey (9-4-1): It may be a cruel bit of analysis, but Casey just does not seem to have the heart to compete with the middleweight elite. All four of his losses have seen him wilt after the first round, and there are many fighters who would have fought through the eye poke that compelled Casey to quit just 11 seconds into his bout with Antonio Carlos Jr. With that being said, he demonstrated some real improvement in striking technique and strategy in his fight with Elvis Mutapcic, drawing with a man most expected to beat him. That same strategy -- avoiding boxing range to kick and working for takedowns -- is the perfect one to beat Alvey, whose plodding, patient style leaves him vulnerable to cautious, out-fighting tactics. Alvey is durable, however, and is always ready to end the fight with a counterpunch. Improvements aside, Casey has always grown less and less effective as the fight wears on, and when he does punch, he tends to reach and expose himself to counters. Expect Casey to take a slow first round before falling to Alvey’s venomous right hook in the third.

Lightweights

Chad Laprise (10-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-2): Since the hard-fought victory over Anton Kuivanen that vaulted him into the UFC, Gouti has come up empty-handed in two efforts. Despite the record, Gouti did prove himself to be a tough competitor, taking a round from Olivier Aubin-Mercier before fading and succumbing to the top prospect’s power grappling in the latter stages of their bout. In Laprise, Gouti has an opponent who will be happy to strike with him. The book on Laprise: Despite all of his technical polish, he lacks athleticism, both in terms of explosiveness and stamina. Fortunately for the Ontarian, France’s Gouti is similarly hampered, with a much more basic boxing game to aid him on the feet. Gouti is likely the more powerful of the two and Laprise can be hurt on the feet, but after his thrilling chess match with Ross Pearson, there is no doubt that Laprise is the more technical, consistent kickboxer. Laprise wins by third-round TKO.

Featherweights

Enrique Barzola (11-2-1) vs. Kyle Bochniak (6-1): Bochniak is one of many great prospects in the UFC’s featherweight division, while Barzola seems cut out to be a solid gatekeeper to the top 15 despite having only fought once in the organization. Bochniak’s potential does not preclude a Barzola victory, as the 29-year-old has just two and a half years of professional experience to Barzola’s four and half as many fights. Barzola is an awkward spoiler of a fighter, as he uses tricky tempo changes and unpredictable movement to set up counterpunches, which in turn set up counter takedowns. Once he has his opponent on the ground, he is very aggressive with thudding ground-and-pound. Though his specific skills are different, he is in many ways a similar challenge to Charles Rosa, who defeated Bochniak in his UFC debut. Bochniak, however, is a far better scrambler than Horacio Gutierrez, whom Barzola was able to stifle with constant takedowns, and will most likely be in better shape than his Peruvian counterpart. It could be a close fight, but the pick is Bochniak by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Shane Campbell (12-4) vs. Felipe Silva (7-0): Campbell is one of the most accomplished kickboxers in the UFC, and in Octagon debutante Silva, he has an opponent who will be willing to strike with him. Silva’s style is more typically muay Thai. He relies on his kicks, including an excellent front kick to the body that he uses to sap his opponent’s energy, and uses the clinch to neutralize opponents who come too close. Campbell has more variety to his game, however, throwing smart combinations of punches and kicks while moving smoothly in and out of range. Mobility and variety are Campbell’s biggest advantages in this striking battle, and they should carry him to victory. The pick is Campbell by unanimous decision.

Middleweights

Garreth McLellan (13-4) vs. Alessio Di Chirico (9-1): Not much was expected of Di Chirico in his UFC debut, but he put on a singularly impressive performance against the tough and well-rounded Bojan Velickovic, losing a fight that should have perhaps gone his way. Di Chirico is a strong kicker, and his boxing seems to be improving with each fight. He is also an opportunistic takedown artist and a solid athlete. McLellan has gotten by so far in the UFC on toughness and grit -- he possesses both traits in spades -- but even so, he has fallen short in two of his three bouts in the promotion. McLellan has some skill in the clinch and his ground striking is something to be feared, but he lacks the takedown game and has spent more time on his back than in top control thus far. Di Chirico’s fleet-footed kickboxing is just all wrong for McLellan’s plodding, single-shot style. Di Chirico by second-round TKO is the pick.

Middleweights

Ryan Janes (8-1) vs. Adam Hunter (7-1): Hunter is one of those fighters for whom “technical” means throwing one shot at a time and “aggressive” means throwing everything, kitchen sink included, straight at the other man’s chin. There is not much footage out there on Janes, but what exists suggests that he is a submission artist with fairly woeful striking technique. To his credit, Janes is tough. Durability counts for a lot in this sport, especially when the opponent has never gone past the first round. If Hunter’s aggressive style leaches his gas tank, then Janes could take him down and submit him. Before that happens, though, he will have to deal with a more powerful and skilled striker, without the benefit of a strong wrestling game to save him. The pick is Hunter by first-round TKO.

Lightweights

Alex Ricci (10-3) vs. Jeremy Kennedy (8-0): Ricci steps in on short notice to replace Josh Emmett, and he meets undefeated Kennedy in what will be the UFC debut for both men. Kennedy is a well-rounded fighter, with three TKOs and two submissions as a professional. He has also proven his ability to go the distance, winning a five-round decision in January 2015. In Ricci, he has a smart and cautious opponent, content to avoid boxing and wrestling range and work his kicks if he respects his opponent’s power. Kennedy is aggressive, however, and may not give Ricci that space. He also has the advantage of a full training camp. His new opponent possesses a very different style to the one for which he was preparing, but his conditioning should be superior. The pick is Kennedy by unanimous decision.

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