Preview: UFC 197 ‘Jones vs. St. Preux’

Flyweights

Sergio Pettis (13-2) vs Chris Kelades (9-2): Pettis paid the price for his relation to former lightweight champion Anthony Pettis when he first came to the UFC, biting off too much too soon. At just 22 years old, however, the younger Pettis has a great deal of time to develop as a fighter and the UFC has wisely begun matching him appropriately. Fighting is unpredictable, of course -- Pettis was well on his way to beating Ryan Benoit when the power puncher put him out -- but “The Phenom” hit a high-water mark for his career when he beat Chris Cariaso in his last fight. Pettis is more technical than his big brother, though he lacks his will and concentration. Opponents willing to push the pace have managed to catch him slipping. Where Pettis is a technical marvel who suffers for lapses in focus, Kelades is an intensely focused fighter who suffers for lapses in technique. Kelades fights at a very high pace but tends to overextend himself chasing punches and takedowns. This problem does alleviate as Kelades gets comfortable, and by the third round, he usually becomes a far more balanced, responsible fighter. “The Greek Assassin” offers a real threat to Pettis, but the Roufusport standout should be able to overcome Kelades’ aggression with timing and finesse -- though a scare or two along the way should be expected. Pettis wins by unanimous decision.

Women’s Strawweights

Carla Esparza (10-3) vs Juliana Lima (8-2): A shoulder injury and a desire for rest have seen former strawweight champion Esparza on the shelf for over a year following her lopsided defeat to current champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk. “The Cookie Monster” returns to the Octagon to face Lima, stepping up on just one month’s notice to replace Jessica Aguilar. Esparza is a wrestle-boxer of the Frankie Edgar mold. She utilizes lots of lateral movement to draw in her opponents, counters them with punches and then seizes on her opportunity to bring them down. As an offensive wrestler, she is among the best in women’s MMA. Not only does Esparza have excellent timing on her shots, but she is a superb chain wrestler, adjusting constantly until her opponent’s back hits the canvas. Were that to work in her return bout, it would mark the first time Lima failed to defend a takedown in the UFC; however, inside the Octagon, Lima has fought a crop of strikers and not one potent wrestler. Lima will look to use her Brazilian muay Thai on the feet, and Esparza will have to beware of her knees in particular as she seeks the takedown. Other than a freak collision, however, this is the former champion’s fight to lose. Esparza by submission in the third round is the pick.

Welterweights

Danny Roberts (12-1) vs Dominique Steele (14-6): Two 28 year-old prospects meet in this interesting style clash. Roberts is known for his boxing -- and for good reason. Fighting out of a low stance, he covers distance with impressive speed, often leading with the southpaw left. However, it has been his submission grappling that has paid the bills thus far in the UFC; Roberts submitted short-notice replacement Nathan Coy with a magnificent triangle, showing off his opportunistic submission grappling. Roberts’ biggest problems are his takedown defense and his complacency. Not only does he struggle to stop chain wrestling, but he is happy to fight off of his back once taken down. Obviously, with five submission wins to his name, Roberts is no fish out of water on the ground, but Steele is not a fighter known for accepting anything. Steele’s best weapons are work rate and tenacity. He is essentially a grinder in all phases, plugging away with strikes, takedown and submission attempts and positional advancements until the opponent breaks down. Unfortunately, he is neither durable nor defensively savvy. Because of his grinding style -- Steele has not won a fight in the first round since 2011 -- the Cincinnati native is at constant risk of having his chin checked. It has already failed him four times, and Roberts seems likely to crack it once again. The pick is Roberts by first-round KO.

Lightweights

Glaico Franca (13-3) vs James Vick (8-0): Just 25 years old, Franca is a promising prospect on a three-fight winning. Not surprisingly, UFC matchmaker Joe Silva is feeding him to his favorite lightweight prospect eater. Of course, Franca is dangerous. His six respective submissions and knockouts speak to his well-roundedness and his win over fellow “Ultimate Fighter: Brazil” finalist Fernando Bruno was quite impressive, but Vick’s experience is vastly superior. In fact, Vick has been fighting stiffer competition his entire career; a close look at Franca’s beaten opponents reveals a few too many losing records. If Franca can maintain range and strike with Vick, he will find success. Vick is a slow starter and has porous defense at range. Franca likes to wrestle and clinch, however, and that opens him up to Vick’s knees and uppercuts, as well as his excellent guillotine. One of these young up-and-comers has to beat Vick eventually, but “The Texecutioner” has been reliable so far. Vick wins by third-round submission.

Heavyweights

Walt Harris (7-4) vs Cody East (12-1): Still winless in the UFC, Harris welcomes heavyweight prospect East to the promotion. When he fights aggressively, Harris displays solid power and a varied output. Unfortunately, the marriage between Harris’ offense and defense is shaky at best; he has trouble pulling the trigger without exposing himself and struggles to get going again once he has been tagged. East does not have much defense from which to transition in the first place, but he is a quick, high-volume fighter, a rare breed among the heavyweights. Like Harris, East is a capable defensive wrestler who prefers to strike, though he is a better combination puncher. Harris does seem to pack more power in singular strikes, but East’s attritive approach has led him to eight wins by knockout or technical knockout. East also recently moved to Jackson-Wink MMA, where he will learn to make the most of his quickness and stamina. Do not be surprised if Harris hurts the newcomer early, but look for East to weather the storm and pour on the volume until Harris goes away. The pick is East by second-round TKO.

Light Heavyweights

Marcos Rogerio de Lima (13-3-1) vs Clint Hester (11-5): After dropping two fights in a row at middleweight, Hester returns to 205 pounds against de Lima. Neither man is known for exemplary decision-making; Hester has a habit of shooting for takedowns and overcommitting on strikes against superior grapplers, while de Lima jumped guard to pursue a guillotine in his last fight despite clearly having little idea of how to finish it. Still, Hester and de Lima are both dangerous strikers with serious power. Hester is a little wilder and more reliant on his hands, while de Lima likes the clinch and has an array of powerful kicks to complement his hands. De Lima has been training at American Top Team for a little over a year now, and that could be a big advantage when it comes to game planning. With that said, Hester is likely more reliable in a drawn-out fight, as de Lima has rarely won outside of the first round. In a fight between unreliable knockout artists, count on the bigger man with more tools and a better team. De Lima takes it by first-round TKO.

Lightweights

Efrain Escudero (24-10) vs Kevin Lee (11-2): The UFC Fight Pass prelims open with a bout between two extremely well-rounded lightweights looking to rebound from a loss. With sharp boxing, opportunistic submissions and a gritty wrestling game, Escudero will be the most experienced and diversely skilled opponent of Lee’s young career; at 30 years old and without a single knockout loss on his record, it stands to reason that “Hecho en Mexico” has a few years left in him still. Unfortunately for Escudero, however, he lacks Lee’s prodigious athletic talents. Escudero’s stamina is unquestionable, but Lee is undoubtedly faster, stronger and the harder puncher. If Escudero can weather the first round, his chances of wearing down Lee or catching him in a submission greatly increase. However, Lee’s youth and athletic talent should be enough to edge out the veteran. The pick is Lee by unanimous decision.

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