Preview: UFC 201 ‘Lawler vs. Woodley’

Light Heavyweights

Ed Herman (23-11) vs. Nikita Krylov (20-4): For a light heavyweight fight, this sure feels like some classic middleweight goodness. Perhaps that is because Herman, a veteran of 35 fights, was a career middleweight. Or perhaps it is because this fight is just weird. Krylov has been pulling off weird wins ever since losing to Ovince St. Preux in his light heavyweight debut. A karateka, Krylov is a dexterous kicker whose boxing leaves a great deal to be desired, but it is his submission game that has been making hay. Krylov appears to be something of an MMA natural, cinching up chokes in transitions despite lacking a nuanced ground game. That streak ends here, however. Herman has been submitted but only twice in the last nine years -- by Demian Maia and Ronaldo Souza. He is a slow but powerful striker with a sturdy chin, solid takedown defense and plenty of experience at his back. Herman rarely fires on more than two cylinders, but his gas tank almost never runs dry. The same cannot be said for Krylov. The pick is Herman by third-round submission.

Welterweights

Ross Pearson (19-11) vs. Jorge Masvidal (29-11): This is a good one. Pearson put on an admirable performance in his fight with former Bellator MMA lightweight champion Will Brooks. Now he makes a quick turnaround against another former lightweight and another veteran of considerable skill. Masvidal has struggled in the past to win rounds thanks to a measured, defensive style -- likely the result of his long career against consistently tough opposition. However, he is more well-rounded than Pearson and has the style to make that diversity work. Pearson is better as an out-fighter and counterpuncher than he is an aggressor, and Masvidal is committed enough to his patient style that Pearson will likely feel forced to attack. When he does, he will not only have to contend with Masvidal’s boxing but his excellent, underrated wrestling. In the last two years, Pearson has only won one fight -- over a shopworn and fragile Gray Maynard -- in which he gave up a takedown. Masvidal scores 60 percent of his takedowns, and he will only need one to steal a round from “The Real Deal.” Masvidal wins via unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Wilson Reis (20-6) vs. Hector Sandoval (12-2): With Demetrious Johnson injured, Reis loses his shot at the flyweight title and meets Team Alpha Male’s Sandoval instead. Sandoval is an all-out aggressive fighter to whom the word “subtlety” has very little meaning. Sandoval wings power punches with no setup and only sets up takedowns with winging power punches. He is equally aggressive on the ground, striking, pressure passing and attacking from the front headlock in typical Alpha Male fashion. The regional flyweight scene is not particularly strong, however, and Sandoval has feasted on journeymen and debutantes for his entire career. Reis is a different caliber of fighter altogether. Reis is a phenomenal athlete, a slick kickboxer, a power wrestler and an absolute ace on the mat. Sandoval’s only chance is to surprise Reis with his aggression, as the Brazilian has been staggered many times in the UFC. Still, Reis is a different fighter from the man who was knocked out by Eduardo Dantas in 2011, and this is his fight to lose. The pick is Reis by second-round submission.

Heavyweights

Anthony Hamilton (14-5) vs. Damian Grabowski (20-3): Grabowski learned a hard lesson in his UFC debut, as Professor Derrick Lewis expounded on the dangers of trying to play a guard game in elite heavyweight MMA. Powerful and heavy-handed, Hamilton could very well do the same, though he lacks the skill and raw knockout power Lewis wields. Hamilton is a fairly unremarkable fighter, technically speaking, but he is not shy about using sheer size and aggression to his advantage. With a four-inch, 25-pound edge over Grabowski, Hamilton will be able to muscle the Pole around and damage him with trademark body shots on the ground if Grabowski remains content to play guard. Grabowski is the more dynamic fighter, and an improved focus on aggression and top position could easily see him defeat Hamilton here. With that said, analysis of past fights gives Hamilton’s ugly aggression the advantage. The pick is Hamilton by unanimous decision.

Welterweights

Michael Graves (6-0) vs. Bojan Velickovic (14-3): American Top Team prospect meets former American Top Team prospect, as Graves takes on Elevation Fight Team’s Velickovic. Velickovic was expected to dominate in his UFC debut, but Italian Alessio Di Chirico gave him a surprisingly stiff test. The stiffness of “Serbian Steel,” as rigid on the feet as his nickname suggests, made him an easy target for the counter punches of the Italian, whom he curiously struggled to take down. Graves rarely struggles to take down an opponent and does tremendous damage from top position when he does, stacking the guard and raining down elbows and heavy punches. Graves’ problem is that he needs top position to win, and he is fairly small for the division. Velickovic is a huge welterweight with solid scrambling and enough scrappiness to get him through tough spots on the floor. As a striker, he may be hittable and awkward, but he is also much longer and more powerful than Graves, especially with his kicks. Even if Graves takes the first round, the tireless Velickovic will make him battle for every inch and use his size to take over late. The pick is Velickovic by unanimous decision.

Lightweights

Cesar Arzamendia (7-2) vs. Damien Brown (15-9): With a muay Thai background, Arzamendia has a stiff, upright kickboxing style. He throws heavy low kicks and strong knees in the clinch, and he puts together solid combinations with his hands. However, he is extremely hittable and relies on his brawler’s will to survive exchanges, hoping to scare off aggressive adversaries. He also uses reactive takedowns, and that could be a problem against Brown, who specializes in the guillotine and rear-naked choke and is quite comfortable playing guard. Brown is not much of a threat standing, however, and his wrestling is underdeveloped. Unless Arzamendia gets sloppy on the ground, Brown will be grasping at straws while “Goku” throws hammers at his head. The pick is Arzamendia by unanimous decision.

Flyweights

Ryan Benoit (8-4) vs. Freddy Serrano (3-0): Serrano was almost certainly doomed in his originally scheduled bout with Ray Borg, but Benoit fills in on just over a week’s notice, and suddenly, Serrano’s prospects are looking good. A lifelong wrestler, Serrano medaled at the Pan Am Games in 2007 and competed in the 2008 Olympics. That wrestling will be his saving grace here, as Serrano’s striking -- while undeniably powerful -- is still developing. Benoit is a powerful kickboxer. He has a complete striking arsenal but at times seems a little rote, as if running through combinations on the pads rather than striking with a live opponent. Wrestling is a weakness, however, and there is no doubt that on such short notice Benoit will struggle to defend Serrano’s shot. Benoit is the more experienced mixed martial artist and Serrano has yet to take a shot from a power puncher, but the circumstances give Colombia’s wrestling expert a real shot at victory. The pick is Serrano by unanimous decision.