Preview: UFC 281 Prelims

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Women’s Strawweights

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (13-7, 6-7 UFC) vs. Silvana Gomez Juarez (11-4, 1-2 UFC)

ODDS: Kowalkiewicz (-120), Juarez (+100)

Kowalkiewicz’s win over Felice Herrig in June was an excellent bit of catharsis, particularly given how dire things had gotten for the former title challenger. Kowalkiewicz’s game was always more than the sum of its parts. A herky-jerky striker who did not read as particularly athletic, her persistence, durability and surprising strength guided her to some surprising victories, most notably a 2016 win over Rose Namajunas that earned Kowalkiewicz a shot at then-divisional boss and fellow Pole Joanna Jedrzejczyk. Kowalkiewicz had little to offer the champion and hung around near the top of division for a bit longer, until a 2018 knockout loss to Jessica Andrade—a brutal bit of business that seemingly derailed her career. Whether thanks to age or newfound awareness of her own mortality, Kowalkiewicz looked slower and more tentative as the losses racked up. An extended beating against Xiaonan Yan in 2020 saw Kowalkiewicz suffer a career-threatening eye injury, and her eventual return against Jessica Penne resulted in a quick armbar loss that marked her fifth straight defeat. Kowalkiewicz completely changed up her training situation and moved stateside ahead of her fight against Herrig, and what may have been a last-ditch effort paid plenty of dividends. Kowalkiewicz obviously regained her confidence in a showing that was impressive even before she pressed her wrestling and grappling on the way to a second-round submission. It was somehow the first finish of Kowalkiewicz’s 13-fight UFC career. Kowalkiewicz looks to keep the good vibes going against Argentina’s Juarez, a deceptively dangerous challenge. Juarez’s UFC career got off to about the worst possible start, suffering two quick submission losses against Lupita Godinez and Vanessa Demopoulos—the latter even coming when she scored a quick knockdown but made the mistake of following Demopoulos to the mat. Still, Juarez’s last outing was a reminder of what “La Malvada” can bring to the table. Submission specialist Na Liang was unable to get the fight to the mat, allowing Juarez to uncork an absolutely brutal one-punch knockout that showed off her considerable power. That gives this fight a clear dynamic in a race to a finish. Even with her regained confidence, Kowalkiewicz is still quite hittable, leaving the possibility of a knockout open until the former title contender can get this to the ground, where victory is likely assured. Even with her recent struggles, Kowalkiewicz is still the much more proven entity and deserving of being the favorite, even though this really could go either way. The pick is Kowalkiewicz via first-round submission.

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