Preview: UFC Fight Night 123 ‘Swanson vs. Ortega’

Bantamweight

Benito Lopez (8-0) vs. Albert Morales (7-2-1)

ODDS: Lopez (-110), Morales (-110) ANALYSIS: Lopez is an undefeated, 23-year-old Team Alpha Male product that just won a contract via Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series in August. Morales owns a 1-2-1 mark in his UFC tenure and could easily be 0-4. On a quick glance, this seems like a showcase fight for a preferred prospect, but the bookies giving this bout pick-’em status is completely righteous.

Morales’ ho-hum UFC record is largely influenced by an ill-advised fight with top-10 standout Thomas Almeida in Brazil and the fact that in July he ran into the undefeated Brett Johns, who was a brilliant, under-the-radar prospect until his calf slicer on Joe Soto at UFC 218. The Systems Training Center rep pressures on the feet behind a steady, hard jab and diligent low kicks. He is still at his weakest when on his back but has largely improved his grappling despite the one-sided nature of his encounter with Johns; his late back take against Andre Soukhamthath was opportunistic and smart, and it won him the fight.

The spindly Lopez prefers things outside the pocket. He has just a one-inch reach advantage in this fight, but the stance-switching striker typically circles his opponents, baiting them with heavy kicks before countering with his hands, similar to a Conor McGregor game plan, albeit without nearly as much forward movement. Once “The Golden Boy” can get his man to open up, he looks to land explosive counterstrikes and then pounces. The best example of this is his counter flying knee, which he has landed numerous times in his career to damaging effect. Lopez throws it on charging targets with very little forward movement, essentially jumping straight in the air and crushing his counterpart’s face with his knee, like a prime Hayato Sakurai.

We have already seen that Morales’ chin is no joke, so Lopez cannot simply rely on landing a highlight-reel, flying-knee counter to end this one out of nowhere. He will need to stay steady with counters to Morales’ pumping jab and answer “The Warrior’s” leg kicks with kicks of his own. As his DWTNCS bout with Steven Peterson showed, Lopez is still at his most vulnerable when stuck to his back. Still, it is Morales who has the tendency to shoot for desperate takedowns when things get squirrely on the feet. Lopez’s ability to change his stances could also allow him to utilize his left hand more effectively, which has been a problem for Morales inside the Octagon. While both men are resilient and capable of taking punishment, if there is one fighter more likely to exploit the idea of stunning his opponent and quickly capitalizing, it is Lopez.

Morales will pressure and stay in Lopez’s face, whether it is to his betterment or detriment. Regardless, it will be to the benefit of the main-card opener’s entertainment value, as “The Golden Boy” moves to 9-0 via the scorecards.

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