Preview: UFC Fight Night 193 ‘Santos vs. Walker’

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Lightweights

NR | Alexander Hernandez (12-4, 4-3 UFC) vs. NR | Mike Breeden (10-3, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Hernandez (-500), Breeden (+400)

It will be interesting to see if Hernandez is simply going through some growing pains or if Donald Cerrone permanently broke parts of his game. Few fighters raised their stock in 2018 more than Hernandez, who debuted with a stunning 42-second knockout of Beneil Dariush before scoring a clear decision win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. That made Hernandez one of the top rising talents in a deep division come 2019, but then “Alexander The Great” ran directly into Cerrone, who turned the aggression that fueled the upstart’s game against him for an increasingly one-sided beating. Hernandez said a lot of the right things afterwards about learning some lessons, but while he has mixed some things up, he may have overcompensated too much in the other direction. Hernandez came away with a post-Cerrone win over Francisco Trinaldo but was inactive to the point of being nearly ineffective in a surprisingly boring fight. While Hernandez has done a better job of picking his spots and balancing patience with aggression in recent bouts, he appeared to lose confidence and composure as soon as Drew Dober and Thiago Moises hit him back hard and often. In between those losses, Hernandez still proved himself capable of running over a subpar athlete like Chris Gruetzemacher, and he looks to recapture that form here against a late replacement and UFC newcomer.

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Breeden has some interesting skills—he can mix up his strikes to include an effective kicking game—but he is a subpar defensive wrestler; and his 2020 Dana Whit’s Contender Series loss to Anthony Romero showed that “Money” can struggle to make up for a gap in athleticism. Breeden is a scrappy fighter and should make this fun for as long as it lasts, but he does not appear to provide the kind of offensive threat that will take Hernandez out of his game. The pick is for Hernandez to have a strong rebound performance and score a second-round knockout.

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