Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Belfort vs. Gastelum’

Welterweights

Alex Oliveira (16-3-1) vs. Tim Means (26-7-1)

THE MATCHUP: The last time Oliveira and Means fought, it ended up looking like a meatier version of Tyron Woodley-Stephen Thompson. Instead of the long stretches of inactivity, there was constant pressure created by Means’ accurate, varied striking. This was countered by Oliveira’s speed and power, takedowns and strikes alike; and instead of simply staring, they clinched. That is where Means landed a pair of illegal knees and turned a competitive fight into a no-contest.

Means, a southpaw, possesses one of MMA’s best muay Thai arsenals and has continually improved and adjusted it, even in recent fights. Whether Means is an aggressive counterpuncher, using his underrated defense and ropey combinations to catch reckless opponents in an exchange, or a long-range kicker who looks to abuse enemies in the Thai clinch when they get too close, he is extremely accurate and precise with every strike in his arsenal while still possessing deceptive power.

“Cowboy” is accurate in his own right, but he typically throws only five strikes per minute, compared to the nearly 10 put out by Means. Oliveira did generate some tremendous offense in the first fight, as he lanced Means’ through the ribs with a hearty spinning back kick and then quickly followed with a successful takedown. On the other hand, Means managed to scramble free from that takedown and ended the bout in a dominant position; he just happened to use it illegally. Means also tripled Oliveira’s strike output, proving that the Brazilian’s striking, while sometimes quite impressive, is not to be counted upon without a knockout or a lot of success on the ground.

Oliveira’s best chance lies on the ground. He is a capable if unremarkable takedown artist, completing almost three of nine takedowns attempted, but his tremendous physical strength helps; and Means has historically been little better than decent on defense, stopping 61 percent of shots made on him. If Oliveira can floor Means, he will need to be wary of submission attacks, but he should be able to score heavily with ground-and-pound, something he uses quite well. Against the fence, however, Means is a mean scrambler -- pardon the pun -- and should provide a stiff test of Oliveira’s top control.

THE ODDS: Means (-230), Oliveira (+195)

THE PICK: If Means can stuff and counter Oliveira’s takedowns as well as he did in their first three minutes together, he should be able to let his experience in the kickboxing and clinch ranges show. Oliveira is dangerous with ground-and-pound, but his striking, while promising, has yet to improve beyond what “Cowboy” showed in his UFC debut. Means, on the other hand, is the savvy veteran striker who knows exactly how to keep his shots simple without ever becoming predictable. Means picks apart Oliveira down the stretch and wins by unanimous decision.

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