UFC 179 ‘Aldo vs. Mendes 2’ Preview

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WELTERWEIGHTS

William Macario (7-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Neil Magny (12-3, 5-2 UFC): Two rising welterweights meet in an excellent and potentially exciting matchup. Magny looks to win his fifth fight of the year, with the most recent victory coming just last month against hyped prospect Alex Garcia, while Macario has not competed since a December triumph over Bobby Voelker. Magny is something of a poor man’s Michael Bisping, with a rangy, high-volume, jab-centric striking style complemented with the occasional takedown, while Macario is an explosive and powerful striker with excellent takedown defense and a punishing top game. Magny is the favorite, but I like Macario’s power and athleticism to take a unanimous decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Yan Cabral (11-1, 1-1 UFC) vs. Naoyuki Kotani (33-11-7, 0-3 UFC): This is a squash match for the Brazilian fans. Kotani is a tough veteran with tons of experience and a surprising submission game, but there is no reason to think he will have anything to offer Cabral, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt with a super-slick submission game of his own and developing striking. This could turn into an ugly striking battle, but I think Cabral will take down Kotani, pass his guard and lock up a topside submission in the first round.

FLYWEIGHTS

Scott Jorgensen (15-9, 4-5 UFC) vs. Wilson Reis (18-5, 2-1 UFC): Veterans Jorgensen and Reis collide in an outstanding flyweight scrap. Both fighters took closer-than-expected victories from debuting opponents in their last outings, and both have the opportunity to cement themselves in the upper echelon of the thin flyweight division with a win here. Reis is a world-champion Brazilian jiu-jitsu player with a fantastic wrestling shot and solid striking skills, while Jorgensen remains a wrestler at heart with decent grappling and jab-heavy striking skills. I like Reis to overcome Jorgensen’s takedown defense, force scrambles and generally outwork the American on the feet and on the ground for a clear decision.

FEATHERWEIGHTS

Felipe Arantes (16-6-1, 3-1-1 UFC) vs. Andre Fili (13-2, 1-1 UFC): This is one of the better action matchups on the card and an early contender for “Fight of the Night.” Arantes, a Chute Boxe product coming off a win over Maximo Blanco in February, owns a slick muay Thai arsenal and a solid top game. Fili is a member of Team Alpha Male and possesses quick-paced, aggressive and well-rounded skills in all phases. While Arantes is a good all-around fighter who has shown consistent improvement, he is too passive at range, and I expect Fili to outwork him with volume striking and the occasional takedown for a clear decision.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Gilbert Burns (8-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Christos Giagos (10-2, 0-0 UFC): Although it is flying under the radar, this scrap promises serious violence. The Los Angeles-based Giagos is an impressive prospect, with fantastic athleticism, a strong wrestling base and big power in his diverse kickboxing. Burns, a Blackzilians product and protégé of Vitor Belfort, is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion, physical specimen and solid wrestler who has taken to coach Henri Hooft’s Dutch style of kickboxing like a fish to water. This should be a fantastic and evenly matched fight, but I give the Brazilian a slight edge in the scrambles and transitions, and I think that will be the difference. The pick is Burns by submission in the second round.

LIGHTWEIGHTS

Fabricio Camoes (14-8-1, 1-3 UFC) vs. Tony Martin (8-2, 0-2 UFC): Longtime veteran Camoes -- he debuted in MMA in 1997 -- opens the card against up-and-comer Martin in a likely loser-leaves-town matchup, as both fighters have lost two in a row. Camoes can do everything well but nothing with particular aplomb. Martin is the prototypical new-breed fighter with broad but not terribly deep skill sets, and although he is a plus athlete with great size, he struggles with his cardio. Youth is on Martin’s side, and I think that he will tag Camoes on the feet and work him over on the ground for a decision.

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