UFC Fight Night ‘Jacare vs. Mousasi 2’ Preview

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Flyweights

John Moraga (14-3, 3-2 UFC) vs. Justin Scoggins (9-1, 2-1 UFC)

The Matchup: Uber-prospect Scoggins attempts to get back on track against former top contender Moraga after a tough split decision loss to Dustin Ortiz. This is a fight Moraga badly needs to win to stay in the top-10 conversation at 125 pounds, as he has done well against lower-level competition, only to be absolutely dominated by the elite.

Scoggins, a product of American Top Team, boasts a diverse and unorthodox game with dynamic finishing ability in every phase.

His karate base gives him an intriguing arsenal of side and spinning kicks in addition to more standard round kicks and powerful, well-timed punches, while his movement and command of angles makes it difficult to get a clean shot at him. What makes his unusual striking game effective, however, is his wrestling prowess. Scoggins has an extremely quick shot and chains together his takedowns beautifully, and he is a powerful clinch fighter with a penchant for landing elbows and knees in transition. He has a threatening guard, and from top position, he shows excellent passes, hard ground strikes and the threat of topside submissions.

Moraga’s game is less dynamic but still effective. He has real power in his hands, takes subtle, sharp angles and throws a beautiful straight right to the body, but he struggles to string together his punches in effective combinations and rarely flashes any setups for his kicks. He is a relatively proficient defensive wrestler, with the exception of his fight against Demetrious Johnson, though he has had trouble consistently imposing his own takedowns. Scrambling is a strong point, and he has shown opportunistic submissions in transition.

Betting Odds: Scoggins (-250), Moraga (+190)

The Pick: I view this as a slightly closer fight than the betting odds indicate. As solid a striker as Scoggins might be, the real core of his game is in the wrestling and scrambles, and Moraga has shown in the past that he is perfectly capable of being competitive in that kind of fight. At range, Moraga will have trouble producing consistent offense. However, when Scoggins pushes the fight into the clinch and into the wrestling and grappling phases, Moraga will enjoy more success. Still, Scoggins is the more dynamic fighter, and I think he will do enough to earn a closer-than-expected decision.

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