Preview: UFC 194 ‘Aldo vs. McGregor’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

* * *

Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

Advertisement

CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

* * *

BEST VALUE: Max Holloway to win inside the distance. Holloway is far and away the easiest pick on this entire card. He continues to evolve and improve with every fight, and no matter how hard Stephens works to do the same, he will always be five years older than Holloway, with five years’ more wear and tear. The straight odds reflect Holloway’s chances of winning fairly well, putting him at -500 and above, but you can bet on Holloway to win inside the distance at +162, which is a pretty sweet deal. If you are feeling confident, Holloway by knockout is set at +255, and you can even find Holloway by submission for +550. The straight up “inside the distance” prop seems safest to me, however.

LIVE DOG: Luke Rockhold. I was tempted to pick Jose Aldo, because Aldo as an underdog is one of those things I never expected to see. However, the reality is that McGregor has a ton of diehard fans who are no doubt throwing everything on him, so the odds probably do not reflect the widespread perception of the bout. Most people do expect Weidman to beat Rockhold, however, and this fight feels about as close as any fight in MMA history. At the very least, these two men should be dead even, but Rockhold stands as a +125 underdog.

SURE THING: Holloway. He is the man. That is all.

CAN’T MISS: This is a tossup: It is either Aldo-McGregor or Weidman-Rockhold. The latter has more technical variables, but the former has a more compelling narrative. I will go with the biggest fight in featherweight history. If you skip everything else this weekend, make sure to tune in for Aldo-McGregor.

SMOKE BREAK: There really are not any fights to be skipped on this card. Ronaldo Souza-Yoel Romero could end up being slow, but the chances that violence could explode at any moment make it worth watching all the same. If I have to pick one fight to skip, I will go with Kevin Lee-Leonardo Santos. Both are good fighters, but it does not strike me as a matchup that guarantees action.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he's not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment, and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.