Preview: UFC 196 ‘McGregor vs. Diaz’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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LIVE DOG: Miesha Tate at +285. Holm is the rightful favorite here, but she has yet to face an opponent with Tate’s potent combination of tenacity and intelligence. Tate often loses the first round, only to grind her way to a decision or late finish. She will not find it easy to take down Holm, but her chances only improve as the fight goes on and she has enough power and durability to keep things interesting on the feet in the meantime.

BEST VALUE: Nordine Taleb at +180. Erick Silva is very dangerous, but his athletic prowess is capped by various mental issues. Silva is a frontrunner who, in the UFC, has only ever won in the first round. He could very well do the same here, but Taleb is patient, poised and well-coached. He is well-situated to outlast Silva and take a decision. There are lots of tempting props on this card to consider as well. Holly Holm by decision is +154, and Conor McGregor by KO is -265. They are not completely safe but worth considering.

SURE THING: Corey Anderson. I want to pick McGregor here, but something tells me that Nate Diaz will prove more troublesome than expected. Anderson, on the other hand, has looked phenomenal ever since his loss to Gian Villante. Granted, that was only a year ago, but the 24-year-old has improved immensely since then. Considering how well he dealt with the boxing of Fabio Maldonado, he should be able to outwork Tom Lawlor on the feet, and his size and strength are a sure advantage in the wrestling department. If you agree with me, you might even consider dropping a few bucks on Anderson. He currently sits at -290.

CAN’T MISS: McGregor vs. Diaz. Obviously. The taunting, the striking, the everything. This fight is guaranteed entertainment.

SMOKE BREAK: Jim Miller vs. Diego Sanchez. Yes, it will probably be fast-paced and exciting, but personally, I do not enjoy watching Sanchez fight anymore. His body does not seem capable of matching the pace that his mind wants to set, and he just keeps getting cut, dropped and beaten up. I will probably watch it, but I am probably a sadist.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.