Preview: UFC 303 Prelims

Flyweights

Rei Tsuruya (9-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Carlos Hernandez (9-3, 2-2 UFC)

ODDS: Tsuruya (-485), Hernandez (+370)

Japanese talent is finally starting to have another moment inside the UFC, and Tsuruya’s promotional debut is another step along that path. Tsuruya was marked as one of the favorites to win the flyweight bracket of the 2023 Road to UFC tournament, and he cashed in on those expectations, mostly running through the competition to earn a UFC contract. Tsuruya’s striking isn’t much, but the freshly turned 22-year-old is able to lean on his wrestling and grappling early and often, continually dragging his opponents to the mat in order to implement his creative submission game. Tsuruya makes his UFC debut against Hernandez, who might experience a bit of deja vu, having just lost to another Japanese grappling standout in Tatsuro Taira in December. Hernandez has settled in as a well-rounded gatekeeper, and the UFC has been content to keep matching him with opponents who look to take the fight to the mat. That has resulted in some hard-fought wins, a quick submission loss to Allan Nascimento and the Taira fight, where Hernandez did an impressive job of avoiding submissions, only to get knocked out. That showing can serve as a bit of a cautionary tale for Tsuruya, who doesn’t have any sort of knockout threat on the feet to fall back on, but he does look like the type of grappler who can find a finish where Taira could not. The pick is Tsuruya via second-round submission.

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